Discounted Cash Flow
Alcoa Corp.
—
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $10.9b | $-466.1m | $-833.1m | -4.3% | — |
| 2017 | $13.6b (25.0%) | $252.8m (154.2%) | $954.3m (214.5%) | 1.9% (143.4%) | $1.18 |
| 2018 | $15.6b (15.0%) | $264.5m (4.6%) | $57.1m (-94.0%) | 1.7% (-9.1%) | $1.22 (3.4%) |
| 2019 | $12.2b (-22.2%) | $-1.3b (-595.6%) | $357.7m (526.5%) | -10.8% (-736.7%) | $-6.07 (-597.5%) |
| 2020 | $10.8b (-11.0%) | $-198.1m (84.9%) | $47.8m (-86.6%) | -1.8% (83.0%) | $-0.91 (85.0%) |
| 2021 | $14.2b (30.9%) | $499.9m (352.4%) | $617.6m (1192.7%) | 3.5% (292.8%) | $2.30 (352.7%) |
| 2022 | $14.5b (2.5%) | $-143.3m (-128.7%) | $398.5m (-35.5%) | -1.0% (-128.0%) | $-0.68 (-129.6%) |
| 2023 | $12.3b (-15.3%) | $-758.5m (-429.3%) | $-512.7m (-228.7%) | -6.2% (-524.6%) | $-3.65 (-436.8%) |
| 2024 | $13.9b (12.7%) | $69.9m (109.2%) | $48.9m (109.5%) | 0.5% (108.2%) | $0.26 (107.1%) |
| 2025 | $15.0b (7.9%) | $1.3b (1828.3%) | $660.7m (1250.0%) | 9.0% (1687.7%) | $4.40 (1592.3%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in EUR. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.