Discounted Cash Flow
ATA Creativity Global ADR
—
Audit / VIE / HFCA: Chinese ADR (VIE contractual structure, HFCA Act): the PCAOB must inspect the China-based auditor (e.g. Deloitte/EY China) or the ADRs can be delisted; dividends must be repatriated through the WFOE/VIE and can be blocked. The audit relies on contractual VIE control, not equity, adding structural risk.
Sourced live via DEF 14A beneficial_ownership (edgartools proxy) for US filers and 20-F risk_factors (“controls X% of voting power” + VIE/HFCA) for foreign ADRs — cached 12h. A concentrated holder can overrule the DCF’s minority-basis assumptions on dividends, issuance, and delisting.
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $9.6m | $3.9m | $9.5m | 40.3% | $0.09 |
| 2017 | $10.2m (6.1%) | $-37.8k (-101.0%) | $9.1m (-4.6%) | -0.4% (-100.9%) | $-0.03 (-133.3%) |
| 2018 | $29.0k (-99.7%) | $127.5m (337475.3%) | $-46.8m (-613.5%) | 439121.6% (118925884.1%) | $18.25 (60933.3%) |
| 2019 | $2.1m (7113.4%) | $-18.2m (-114.3%) | $-8.7m (81.5%) | -870.5% (-100.2%) | $-2.52 (-113.8%) |
| 2020 | $3.7m (77.0%) | $-865.3k (95.3%) | $-4.3m (50.7%) | -23.4% (97.3%) | $-1.57 (37.7%) |
| 2021 | $4.7m (27.7%) | $-305.1k (64.7%) | $-305.1k (92.9%) | -6.4% (72.4%) | $-0.57 (63.7%) |
| 2022 | $4.5m (-5.5%) | $-104.6k (65.7%) | $-104.6k (65.7%) | -2.3% (63.7%) | $-0.11 (80.7%) |
| 2023 | $4.7m (4.1%) | $-7.5k (92.8%) | $1.3m (1302.9%) | -0.2% (93.1%) | $-0.08 (27.3%) |
| 2024 | $5.5m (17.7%) | $-14 (99.8%) | $-907.7k (-172.2%) | -0.0% (99.8%) | $-0.08 (0.0%) |
| 2025 | $5.7m (4.4%) | $-4 (69.5%) | $3.0m (425.0%) | -0.0% (70.8%) | $-0.11 (-37.5%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in CNY. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.