Discounted Cash Flow

Ambev S.A. ADR

ABEV · Based on 10 years of SEC filings · Converted from BRL to USD

Cash flow predictability 87/100 (stable) — FCF YoY std dev 20%, net income 22% (full history)

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income
Dividends

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $8.9b $2.4b 27.5% $0.80
2017 $9.3b (5.0%) $1.4b (-41.6%) 15.3% (-44.4%) $0.47 (-41.3%)
2018 $9.8b (4.9%) $2.2b (50.4%) $2.9b 21.9% (43.4%) $0.70 (49.2%)
2019 $10.3b (4.7%) $2.3b (6.9%) $3.6b (23.8%) 22.4% (2.0%) $0.75 (6.8%)
2020 $11.4b (11.0%) $2.2b (-3.4%) 19.5% (-13.0%) $0.72 (-3.4%)
2021 $14.2b (24.8%) $2.5b (11.4%) $4.5b 17.4% (-10.8%) $0.81 (11.3%)
2022 $15.6b (9.4%) $2.8b (14.1%) $4.0b (-9.9%) 18.1% (4.3%) $0.92 (14.1%)
2023 $15.6b (0.0%) $2.8b (0.3%) $3.7b (-9.4%) 18.2% (0.3%) $0.92 (0.3%)
2024 $17.5b (12.2%) $2.8b (-0.4%) $4.8b (30.3%) 16.1% (-11.3%) $0.92 (-0.4%)
2025 $17.2b (-1.4%) $3.0b (7.4%) $3.9b (-18.5%) 17.6% (8.9%) $0.99 (8.2%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

SEC filings report in BRL. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model