Discounted Cash Flow
Adient Plc.
—
Sales growth has weakened: 3.2% (2022) → 9.0% (2023) → -4.6% (2024) → -1.0% (2025). Revenue growth has been decelerating or declining in recent years and is now -1.0% — a slowing company may not sustain the growth the DCF projects, so the valuation could be overstated.
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $2.5b | $-230.5m | $-219.3m | -9.2% | $-16.50 |
| 2017 | $2.4b (-3.4%) | $130.8m (156.7%) | $25.2m (111.5%) | 5.4% (158.7%) | $9.38 (156.8%) |
| 2018 | $2.6b (7.6%) | $-251.3m (-292.1%) | $21.3m (-15.4%) | -9.7% (-278.6%) | $-18.06 (-292.5%) |
| 2019 | $2.5b (-5.2%) | $-73.2m (70.9%) | $-23.9m (-211.9%) | -3.0% (69.3%) | $-5.25 (70.9%) |
| 2020 | $1.9b (-23.3%) | $-81.6m (-11.4%) | $-11.9m (50.0%) | -4.3% (-45.3%) | $-5.18 (1.3%) |
| 2021 | $2.0b (8.0%) | $165.2m (302.6%) | $0 (100.0%) | 8.1% (287.6%) | $12.63 (343.8%) |
| 2022 | $2.1b (3.2%) | $-17.9m (-110.8%) | $7.0m | -0.8% (-110.5%) | $-0.42 (-103.3%) |
| 2023 | $2.3b (9.0%) | $30.6m (270.8%) | $61.9m (783.0%) | 1.3% (256.7%) | $3.12 (839.8%) |
| 2024 | $2.2b (-4.6%) | $2.7m (-91.2%) | $41.3m (-33.3%) | 0.1% (-90.8%) | $1.13 (-63.9%) |
| 2025 | $2.2b (-1.0%) | $-41.9m (-1661.1%) | $30.4m (-26.4%) | -1.9% (-1677.5%) | $-2.30 (-303.9%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in CNY. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.