Discounted Cash Flow
Aflac Inc.
—
—
Cash flow predictability 88/100 (stable) —
FCF YoY std dev 10%,
net income 33% (full history)
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
—
%
%
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $146.4m | $17.3m | $38.9m | 11.8% | $6.46 |
| 2017 | $140.6m (-4.0%) | $29.9m (73.1%) | $39.8m (2.4%) | 21.2% (80.3%) | $11.63 (80.0%) |
| 2018 | $141.2m (0.4%) | $19.0m (-36.6%) | $39.0m (-1.9%) | 13.4% (-36.8%) | $3.79 (-67.4%) |
| 2019 | $144.8m (2.5%) | $21.4m (13.2%) | $35.4m (-9.3%) | 14.8% (10.4%) | $4.45 (17.4%) |
| 2020 | $143.7m (-0.7%) | $31.0m (44.6%) | $38.7m (9.2%) | 21.6% (45.7%) | $6.69 (50.3%) |
| 2021 | $143.5m (-0.2%) | $28.1m (-9.5%) | $32.8m (-15.2%) | 19.6% (-9.3%) | $6.42 (-4.0%) |
| 2022 | $126.6m (-11.8%) | $27.3m (-2.9%) | $25.2m (-23.2%) | 21.5% (10.1%) | $6.62 (3.1%) |
| 2023 | $121.4m (-4.1%) | $30.2m (10.9%) | $20.7m (-17.8%) | 24.9% (15.7%) | $7.81 (18.0%) |
| 2024 | $122.8m (1.2%) | $35.3m (16.8%) | $17.6m (-15.1%) | 28.8% (15.4%) | $9.68 (23.9%) |
| 2025 | $111.4m (-9.3%) | $23.7m (-33.0%) | $16.6m (-5.6%) | 21.2% (-26.1%) | $6.84 (-29.3%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in JPY. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.