Discounted Cash Flow
Agco Corp. /de
—
Sales growth has weakened: 13.6% (2022) → 13.9% (2023) → -19.1% (2024) → -13.5% (2025). Revenue growth has been decelerating or declining in recent years and is now -13.5% — a slowing company may not sustain the growth the DCF projects, so the valuation could be overstated.
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $8.6b | $186.0m | $195.7m | 2.2% | $1.97 |
| 2017 | $9.6b (12.1%) | $216.5m (16.4%) | $434.1m (121.8%) | 2.2% (3.9%) | $2.34 (18.8%) |
| 2018 | $10.9b (12.6%) | $331.6m (53.2%) | $456.0m (5.1%) | 3.1% (36.0%) | $3.62 (54.7%) |
| 2019 | $10.5b (-3.3%) | $145.4m (-56.1%) | $490.8m (7.6%) | 1.4% (-54.6%) | $1.64 (-54.7%) |
| 2020 | $10.6b (1.2%) | $496.1m (241.1%) | $727.9m (48.3%) | 4.7% (237.1%) | $5.69 (247.0%) |
| 2021 | $12.9b (21.7%) | $1.0b (110.0%) | $453.5m (-37.7%) | 8.1% (72.5%) | $11.93 (109.7%) |
| 2022 | $14.7b (13.6%) | $1.0b (-0.8%) | $522.6m (15.2%) | 7.0% (-12.7%) | $11.92 (-0.1%) |
| 2023 | $16.7b (13.9%) | $1.4b (31.7%) | $679.5m (30.0%) | 8.1% (15.6%) | $15.66 (31.4%) |
| 2024 | $13.5b (-19.1%) | $-493.4m (-136.3%) | $344.5m (-49.3%) | -3.6% (-144.8%) | $-5.69 (-136.3%) |
| 2025 | $11.7b (-13.5%) | $843.9m (271.0%) | $859.8m (149.6%) | 7.2% (297.8%) | $9.76 (271.5%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in EUR. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.