Discounted Cash Flow
Akso Health Group ADR
—
Audit / VIE / HFCA: Chinese ADR (VIE contractual structure, HFCA Act): the PCAOB must inspect the China-based auditor (e.g. Deloitte/EY China) or the ADRs can be delisted; dividends must be repatriated through the WFOE/VIE and can be blocked. The audit relies on contractual VIE control, not equity, adding structural risk.
Sourced live via DEF 14A beneficial_ownership (edgartools proxy) for US filers and 20-F risk_factors (“controls X% of voting power” + VIE/HFCA) for foreign ADRs — cached 12h. A concentrated holder can overrule the DCF’s minority-basis assumptions on dividends, issuance, and delisting.
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | $3.4m | $1.3m | $1.2m | 37.4% | $0.20 |
| 2018 | $16.0m (368.0%) | $9.8m (664.0%) | $13.1m (971.1%) | 61.1% (63.3%) | $1.46 (630.0%) |
| 2019 | $9.1m (-42.8%) | $825.0k (-91.6%) | $-258.1k (-102.0%) | 9.0% (-85.2%) | $0.11 (-92.5%) |
| 2020 | $1.7m (-81.4%) | $-10.6m (-1386.9%) | $-8.3m (-3127.2%) | -622.6% (-7002.1%) | $-1.46 (-1427.3%) |
| 2021 | $261.7k (-84.7%) | $-5.2m (51.1%) | $1.5m (118.0%) | -1984.5% (-218.7%) | $-0.71 (51.4%) |
| 2022 | $941.0k (259.6%) | $-2.5m (51.6%) | $-1.3m (-185.8%) | -267.0% (86.5%) | $-0.28 (60.6%) |
| 2023 | $2.0m (108.9%) | $-202.8k (91.9%) | $-485.1k (62.3%) | -10.3% (96.1%) | $-0.02 (92.9%) |
| 2024 | $360.0k (-81.7%) | $-1.4m (-595.5%) | $201.5k (141.5%) | -391.8% (-3697.4%) | $-0.07 (-250.0%) |
| 2025 | $2.2m (512.1%) | $-20.1m (-1327.0%) | $152.5k (-24.3%) | -913.4% (-133.1%) | $-0.16 (-128.6%) |
| 2026 | $2.1m (-6.4%) | $-2.8m (86.2%) | $-2.8m (-1925.7%) | -135.0% (85.2%) | $-0.03 (81.2%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in CNY. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.