Discounted Cash Flow
Aifu Inc. ADR
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Audit / VIE / HFCA: Chinese ADR (VIE contractual structure, HFCA Act): the PCAOB must inspect the China-based auditor (e.g. Deloitte/EY China) or the ADRs can be delisted; dividends must be repatriated through the WFOE/VIE and can be blocked. The audit relies on contractual VIE control, not equity, adding structural risk. Financial-sector DCF: free cash flow for lenders/insurers includes loan principal and deposits, so FCF ≈ 5-10× net income and is not a valuation proxy; the model shows moderate/unstable predictability and the DCF can be 5-40× market cap (lender pattern).
Sourced live via DEF 14A beneficial_ownership (edgartools proxy) for US filers and 20-F risk_factors (“controls X% of voting power” + VIE/HFCA) for foreign ADRs — cached 12h. A concentrated holder can overrule the DCF’s minority-basis assumptions on dividends, issuance, and delisting.
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $101.0m | $3.6m | $1.6m | 3.6% | $0.02 |
| 2017 | $93.7m (-7.2%) | $10.3m (186.0%) | $3.0m (84.4%) | 11.0% (208.1%) | $0.06 (200.0%) |
| 2018 | $517.6m (452.4%) | $92.0m (793.8%) | $74.7m (2384.3%) | 17.8% (61.8%) | $0.49 (716.7%) |
| 2019 | $79.4m (-84.7%) | $4.1m (-95.5%) | $3.4m (-95.5%) | 5.2% (-70.8%) | $0.02 (-95.9%) |
| 2020 | $74.7m (-5.9%) | $6.3m (53.0%) | $8.8m (160.3%) | 8.5% (62.6%) | $0.04 (100.0%) |
| 2021 | $76.5m (2.5%) | $6.1m (-3.6%) | $2.2m (-74.8%) | 7.9% (-6.0%) | $0.04 (0.0%) |
| 2022 | $60.1m (-21.4%) | $2.2m (-64.4%) | $1.3m (-41.9%) | 3.6% (-54.6%) | $0.01 (-75.0%) |
| 2023 | $67.2m (11.7%) | $5.9m (171.7%) | $1.9m (43.7%) | 8.8% (143.3%) | $0.04 (300.0%) |
| 2024 | $37.0m (-45.0%) | $9.3m (57.8%) | $2.7m (47.2%) | 25.2% (186.8%) | $0.06 (50.0%) |
| 2025 | $11.9m (-67.9%) | $-48.5m (-622.0%) | $-418.1k (-115.2%) | -408.8% (-1725.4%) | — |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in CNY. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.