Discounted Cash Flow
Autoliv Inc.
—
Sales growth has weakened: 7.4% (2022) → 18.5% (2023) → -0.8% (2024) → 4.1% (2025). Revenue growth has been decelerating or declining in recent years and is now 4.1% — a slowing company may not sustain the growth the DCF projects, so the valuation could be overstated.
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $11.7b | $658.7m | $420.0m | 5.6% | $6.43 |
| 2017 | $12.1b (3.1%) | $496.1m (-24.7%) | $413.3m (-1.6%) | 4.1% (-26.9%) | $4.88 (-24.1%) |
| 2018 | $10.1b (-16.4%) | $221.2m (-55.4%) | $35.5m (-91.4%) | 2.2% (-46.7%) | $2.19 (-55.1%) |
| 2019 | $9.9b (-1.5%) | $536.1m (142.4%) | $182.7m (414.1%) | 5.4% (146.1%) | $5.29 (141.6%) |
| 2020 | $8.7b (-12.9%) | $217.1m (-59.5%) | $587.1m (221.3%) | 2.5% (-53.5%) | $2.14 (-59.5%) |
| 2021 | $9.6b (10.5%) | $505.3m (132.7%) | $343.8m (-41.4%) | 5.3% (110.6%) | $4.97 (132.2%) |
| 2022 | $10.3b (7.4%) | $491.4m (-2.8%) | $148.7m (-56.8%) | 4.8% (-9.5%) | $4.86 (-2.2%) |
| 2023 | $12.2b (18.5%) | $566.9m (15.4%) | $475.1m (219.5%) | 4.7% (-2.6%) | $5.74 (18.1%) |
| 2024 | $12.1b (-0.8%) | $750.4m (32.4%) | $557.6m (17.4%) | 6.2% (33.5%) | $8.06 (40.4%) |
| 2025 | $12.6b (4.1%) | $853.8m (13.8%) | $831.7m (49.2%) | 6.8% (9.3%) | $9.59 (19.0%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in EUR. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.