Discounted Cash Flow
Ambow Education Holding Ltd. ADR
—
Audit / VIE / HFCA: Chinese ADR (VIE contractual structure, HFCA Act): the PCAOB must inspect the China-based auditor (e.g. Deloitte/EY China) or the ADRs can be delisted; dividends must be repatriated through the WFOE/VIE and can be blocked. The audit relies on contractual VIE control, not equity, adding structural risk.
Sourced live via DEF 14A beneficial_ownership (edgartools proxy) for US filers and 20-F risk_factors (“controls X% of voting power” + VIE/HFCA) for foreign ADRs — cached 12h. A concentrated holder can overrule the DCF’s minority-basis assumptions on dividends, issuance, and delisting.
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $61.3m | $-764.4k | $1.1m | -1.2% | $-0.93 |
| 2017 | $10.1m (-83.4%) | $1.1m (238.9%) | $3.0m (176.7%) | 10.5% (939.0%) | $1.20 (229.0%) |
| 2018 | $11.5m (13.3%) | $973.0k (-8.4%) | $3.8m (25.9%) | 8.5% (-19.1%) | $0.16 (-86.7%) |
| 2019 | $12.5m (8.5%) | $403.7k (-58.5%) | $-2.8m (-174.3%) | 3.2% (-61.8%) | $-0.33 (-306.2%) |
| 2020 | $12.1m (-2.8%) | $-8.2m (-2127.2%) | $285.2k (110.1%) | -67.5% (-2185.5%) | $-0.22 (33.3%) |
| 2021 | $11.6m (-4.4%) | $6.8m (182.9%) | $-3.6m (-1371.7%) | 58.5% (186.7%) | $0.01 (104.5%) |
| 2022 | $2.2m (-81.0%) | $-4.9m (-172.9%) | $-6.4m (-75.9%) | -224.1% (-482.9%) | $-0.19 (-2000.0%) |
| 2023 | $1.4m (-38.3%) | $-472.4k (90.4%) | $-3.3m (48.9%) | -34.7% (84.5%) | $-0.06 (68.4%) |
| 2024 | $1.4m (2.5%) | $-778.2k (-64.7%) | $-178.4k (94.5%) | -55.7% (-60.7%) | $0.01 (109.0%) |
| 2025 | $1.4m (0.8%) | $-664.8k (14.6%) | $-664.8k (-272.6%) | -47.2% (15.3%) | $0.02 (340.7%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in CNY. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.