Discounted Cash Flow
Amphastar Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
—
Sales growth has weakened: 14.0% (2022) → 29.1% (2023) → 13.6% (2024) → -1.7% (2025). Revenue growth has been decelerating or declining in recent years and is now -1.7% — a slowing company may not sustain the growth the DCF projects, so the valuation could be overstated.
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $296.4m | $12.2m | $20.0m | 4.1% | $0.23 |
| 2017 | $279.0m (-5.9%) | $5.2m (-57.2%) | $4.8m (-76.1%) | 1.9% (-54.5%) | $0.10 (-56.5%) |
| 2018 | $342.3m (22.7%) | $-6.7m (-227.3%) | $-10.0m (-309.7%) | -1.9% (-203.7%) | $-0.12 (-220.0%) |
| 2019 | $374.4m (9.4%) | $56.8m (952.9%) | $240.5k (102.4%) | 15.2% (879.6%) | $1.04 (966.7%) |
| 2020 | $406.4m (8.5%) | $1.6m (-97.1%) | $27.2m (11209.7%) | 0.4% (-97.4%) | $0.03 (-97.1%) |
| 2021 | $508.5m (25.1%) | $72.2m (4327.4%) | $81.9m (201.3%) | 14.2% (3438.2%) | $1.30 (4233.3%) |
| 2022 | $579.6m (14.0%) | $106.2m (47.1%) | $75.7m (-7.6%) | 18.3% (29.1%) | $1.88 (44.6%) |
| 2023 | $748.5m (29.1%) | $159.8m (50.5%) | $168.8m (123.1%) | 21.3% (16.5%) | $2.85 (51.6%) |
| 2024 | $850.3m (13.6%) | $185.3m (16.0%) | $200.2m (18.6%) | 21.8% (2.1%) | $3.29 (15.4%) |
| 2025 | $836.2m (-1.7%) | $113.9m (-38.5%) | $140.8m (-29.7%) | 13.6% (-37.5%) | $2.10 (-36.2%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in EUR. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.