Discounted Cash Flow
Ampco Pittsburgh Corp.
—
Sales growth has weakened: 10.2% (2022) → 9.2% (2023) → -3.0% (2024) → 3.3% (2025). Revenue growth has been decelerating or declining in recent years and is now 3.3% — a slowing company may not sustain the growth the DCF projects, so the valuation could be overstated.
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $448.7m | $-107.9m | $-21.9m | -24.1% | $-6.68 |
| 2017 | $584.6m (30.3%) | $-16.3m (84.9%) | $-41.6m (-89.7%) | -2.8% (88.4%) | $-0.98 (85.3%) |
| 2018 | $567.1m (-3.0%) | $-93.7m (-473.5%) | $-31.3m (24.7%) | -16.5% (-491.3%) | $-5.57 (-468.4%) |
| 2019 | $538.0m (-5.1%) | $-28.4m (69.7%) | $-20.0m (36.2%) | -5.3% (68.1%) | $-1.67 (70.0%) |
| 2020 | $444.2m (-17.4%) | $10.8m (138.0%) | $34.0m (270.4%) | 2.4% (146.0%) | $0.56 (133.5%) |
| 2021 | $466.3m (5.0%) | $-17.2m (-259.3%) | $-42.0m (-223.6%) | -3.7% (-251.7%) | $-0.67 (-219.6%) |
| 2022 | $514.1m (10.2%) | $4.6m (126.9%) | $-59.3m (-41.1%) | 0.9% (124.4%) | $0.18 (126.9%) |
| 2023 | $561.5m (9.2%) | $-54.0m (-1268.9%) | $-32.6m (45.0%) | -9.6% (-1170.2%) | $-2.04 (-1233.3%) |
| 2024 | $544.6m (-3.0%) | $592.2k (101.1%) | $7.9m (124.2%) | 0.1% (101.1%) | $0.02 (101.0%) |
| 2025 | $562.8m (3.3%) | $-89.3m (-15183.8%) | $-10.9m (-238.2%) | -15.9% (-14695.3%) | $-3.28 (-16500.0%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in GBP. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.