Discounted Cash Flow
Autohome Inc. ADR
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Audit / VIE / HFCA: Chinese ADR (VIE contractual structure, HFCA Act): the PCAOB must inspect the China-based auditor (e.g. Deloitte/EY China) or the ADRs can be delisted; dividends must be repatriated through the WFOE/VIE and can be blocked. The audit relies on contractual VIE control, not equity, adding structural risk.
Sourced live via DEF 14A beneficial_ownership (edgartools proxy) for US filers and 20-F risk_factors (“controls X% of voting power” + VIE/HFCA) for foreign ADRs — cached 12h. A concentrated holder can overrule the DCF’s minority-basis assumptions on dividends, issuance, and delisting.
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $128.0m | $26.4m | $33.0m | 20.6% | $1.55 |
| 2017 | $142.3m (11.2%) | $45.9m (73.9%) | $54.7m (65.7%) | 32.2% (56.5%) | $2.64 (70.3%) |
| 2018 | $156.9m (10.2%) | $62.3m (35.7%) | $65.0m (18.9%) | 39.7% (23.1%) | $3.55 (34.5%) |
| 2019 | $180.4m (15.0%) | $68.5m (10.1%) | $57.5m (-11.5%) | 38.0% (-4.3%) | $3.88 (9.3%) |
| 2020 | $197.9m (9.7%) | $77.8m (13.5%) | $70.0m (21.7%) | 39.3% (3.5%) | $1.09 (-71.9%) |
| 2021 | $169.3m (-14.4%) | $52.6m (-32.4%) | $77.3m (10.5%) | 31.1% (-21.0%) | $0.67 (-38.5%) |
| 2022 | $150.1m (-11.4%) | $40.1m (-23.8%) | $380.0m (391.3%) | 26.7% (-14.0%) | $0.52 (-22.4%) |
| 2023 | $1.1b (613.9%) | $40.6m (1.3%) | $363.9m (-4.2%) | 3.8% (-85.8%) | $0.54 (3.8%) |
| 2024 | $1.0b (-2.0%) | $34.3m (-15.5%) | $201.9m (-44.5%) | 3.3% (-13.8%) | $0.46 (-14.8%) |
| 2025 | $962.1m (-8.3%) | $30.8m (-10.4%) | $130.1m (-35.6%) | 3.2% (-2.3%) | $0.42 (-8.7%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in CNY. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.