Discounted Cash Flow
Atlanticus Holdings Corp.
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Audit / VIE / HFCA: Financial-sector DCF: free cash flow for lenders/insurers includes loan principal and deposits, so FCF ≈ 5-10× net income and is not a valuation proxy; the model shows moderate/unstable predictability and the DCF can be 5-40× market cap (lender pattern).
Sourced live via DEF 14A beneficial_ownership (edgartools proxy) for US filers and 20-F risk_factors (“controls X% of voting power” + VIE/HFCA) for foreign ADRs — cached 12h. A concentrated holder can overrule the DCF’s minority-basis assumptions on dividends, issuance, and delisting.
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $102.9m | $-8.6m | $52.3m | -8.3% | $-0.46 |
| 2017 | $126.3m (22.7%) | $-55.1m (-543.7%) | $-35.0m (-166.9%) | -43.6% (-424.4%) | $-2.93 (-537.0%) |
| 2018 | $217.9m (72.5%) | $10.6m (119.3%) | $56.1m (260.4%) | 4.9% (111.2%) | $0.56 (119.1%) |
| 2019 | $435.4m (99.8%) | $35.8m (236.6%) | $134.8m (140.4%) | 8.2% (68.4%) | $1.74 (210.7%) |
| 2020 | $761.7m (74.9%) | $127.3m (255.9%) | $286.6m (112.6%) | 16.7% (103.5%) | $5.32 (205.7%) |
| 2021 | $1.0b (32.8%) | $240.5m (89.0%) | $277.5m (-3.2%) | 23.8% (42.4%) | $10.32 (94.0%) |
| 2022 | $1.4b (40.0%) | $183.3m (-23.8%) | $461.4m (66.3%) | 13.0% (-45.5%) | $7.55 (-26.8%) |
| 2023 | $1.6b (10.4%) | $139.0m (-24.2%) | $615.6m (33.4%) | 8.9% (-31.3%) | $5.35 (-29.1%) |
| 2024 | $1.8b (13.3%) | $150.5m (8.2%) | $632.2m (2.7%) | 8.5% (-4.5%) | $5.92 (10.7%) |
| 2025 | $2.7b (50.3%) | $165.2m (9.8%) | $855.7m (35.4%) | 6.2% (-26.9%) | $7.40 (25.0%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in GBP. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.