Discounted Cash Flow
Avista Corp.
—
—
⚠ Cash flow predictability 38/100 (unstable) —
FCF YoY std dev 86%,
net income 20% (full history)
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
—
%
%
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $1.0b | $99.3m | $-35.0m | 9.5% | $2.16 |
| 2017 | $1.0b (0.2%) | $83.9m (-15.5%) | $-1.5m (95.8%) | 8.0% (-15.7%) | $1.80 (-16.7%) |
| 2018 | $1.0b (-3.4%) | $98.7m (17.7%) | $-45.2m (-2960.5%) | 9.8% (21.8%) | $2.08 (15.6%) |
| 2019 | $973.9m (-3.7%) | $142.6m (44.4%) | $-32.1m (29.1%) | 14.6% (49.9%) | $2.98 (43.3%) |
| 2020 | $956.8m (-1.8%) | $93.7m (-34.3%) | $-53.1m (-65.5%) | 9.8% (-33.1%) | $1.91 (-35.9%) |
| 2021 | $1.0b (8.9%) | $106.6m (13.8%) | $-124.9m (-135.5%) | 10.2% (4.5%) | $2.11 (10.5%) |
| 2022 | $1.2b (18.9%) | $112.3m (5.3%) | $-237.2m (-89.9%) | 9.1% (-11.4%) | $2.13 (0.9%) |
| 2023 | $1.3b (2.4%) | $123.9m (10.3%) | $-37.3m (84.3%) | 9.8% (7.7%) | $2.24 (5.2%) |
| 2024 | $1.4b (10.6%) | $130.3m (5.2%) | $723.8k (101.9%) | 9.3% (-5.0%) | $2.29 (2.2%) |
| 2025 | $1.4b (1.3%) | $139.7m (7.2%) | $-73.1m (-10200.0%) | 9.8% (5.8%) | $2.38 (3.9%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in CAD. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.