Discounted Cash Flow

Grupo Aval Acciones Y Valores S.A. ADR

AVAL · Based on 10 years of SEC filings · Converted from COP to USD (19 ordinary shares per ADR)

⚠ Cash flow predictability 46/100 (moderate) — FCF YoY std dev 88%, net income 66% (full history)

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income
Dividends

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $8.4b $689.0m $800.2m 8.3% $96.04
2017 $8.6b (2.6%) $211.7k (-100.0%) $551.3k (-99.9%) 0.0% (-100.0%) $88.08 (-8.3%)
2018 $11.0b (28.0%) $288.6k (36.3%) $865.1k (56.9%) 0.0% (6.5%) $130.72 (48.4%)
2019 $11.9b (8.7%) $977.1m (338448.4%) $1.8b (209628.8%) 8.2% (311295.8%) $136.19 (4.2%)
2020 $12.4b (3.8%) $756.5m (-22.6%) $3.2b (77.8%) 6.1% (-25.4%) $105.45 (-22.6%)
2021 $12.6b (1.6%) $1.1b (40.4%) $1.9b (-41.1%) 8.4% (38.2%) $148.01 (40.4%)
2022 $12.0b (-4.6%) $799.5m (-24.7%) $-440.7m (-123.2%) 6.7% (-21.1%) $107.29 (-27.5%)
2023 $15.3b (27.9%) $238.0m (-70.2%) $1.5b (445.1%) 1.6% (-76.7%) $31.12 (-71.0%)
2024 $15.0b (-2.4%) $326.9m (37.4%) $-167.8m (-111.0%) 2.2% (40.8%) $42.75 (37.4%)
2025 $8.3b (-44.3%) $1.5b (355.3%) $2.0b (1269.4%) 17.8% (716.6%) $72.52 (69.6%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

SEC filings report in COP. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model