Discounted Cash Flow
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. ADR
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Audit / VIE / HFCA: Chinese ADR (VIE contractual structure, HFCA Act): the PCAOB must inspect the China-based auditor (e.g. Deloitte/EY China) or the ADRs can be delisted; dividends must be repatriated through the WFOE/VIE and can be blocked. The audit relies on contractual VIE control, not equity, adding structural risk.
Sourced live via DEF 14A beneficial_ownership (edgartools proxy) for US filers and 20-F risk_factors (“controls X% of voting power” + VIE/HFCA) for foreign ADRs — cached 12h. A concentrated holder can overrule the DCF’s minority-basis assumptions on dividends, issuance, and delisting.
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | $3.4b | $946.1m | $1.7b | 27.6% | $2.55 |
| 2018 | $5.9b (73.5%) | $1.5b (61.0%) | $3.0b (71.0%) | 25.6% (-7.2%) | $4.00 (56.9%) |
| 2019 | $8.4b (40.7%) | $2.0b (28.2%) | $3.4b (12.7%) | 23.3% (-8.9%) | $0.63 (-84.2%) |
| 2020 | $10.7b (28.2%) | $3.1b (61.2%) | $3.8b (13.4%) | 29.3% (25.7%) | $1.00 (58.7%) |
| 2021 | $16.3b (52.1%) | $3.4b (8.9%) | $5.3b (38.7%) | 21.0% (-28.4%) | $1.06 (6.0%) |
| 2022 | $20.1b (22.9%) | $1.5b (-57.3%) | $3.4b (-36.3%) | 7.3% (-65.2%) | $0.45 (-57.5%) |
| 2023 | $18.9b (-6.0%) | $1.6b (7.9%) | $1.6b (-52.9%) | 8.4% (14.8%) | $0.50 (11.1%) |
| 2024 | $19.4b (3.1%) | $1.7b (4.6%) | $1.7b (4.6%) | 8.5% (1.5%) | $0.55 (10.0%) |
| 2025 | $20.5b (5.3%) | $2.7b (61.8%) | $11.6b (599.7%) | 13.1% (53.6%) | $0.95 (72.7%) |
| 2026 | $22.1b (8.1%) | $2.2b (-16.2%) | $-7.6b (-165.4%) | 10.1% (-22.5%) | $0.83 (-12.6%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in CNY. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.