Discounted Cash Flow
Brinks Co.
—
Sales growth has weakened: 8.0% (2022) → 7.5% (2023) → 2.8% (2024) → 5.0% (2025). Revenue growth has been decelerating or declining in recent years and is now 5.0% — a slowing company may not sustain the growth the DCF projects, so the valuation could be overstated.
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $3.5b | $40.1m | $64.2m | 1.1% | $0.69 |
| 2017 | $3.9b (10.8%) | $19.4m (-51.6%) | $90.1m (40.3%) | 0.5% (-56.3%) | $0.33 (-52.2%) |
| 2018 | $4.1b (4.2%) | $-38.7m (-299.4%) | $242.8m (169.3%) | -1.0% (-291.3%) | $-0.65 (-297.0%) |
| 2019 | $4.3b (5.6%) | $33.7m (187.1%) | $236.7m (-2.5%) | 0.8% (182.5%) | $0.58 (189.2%) |
| 2020 | $4.3b (0.2%) | $18.6m (-44.8%) | $231.4m (-2.3%) | 0.4% (-44.9%) | $0.32 (-44.8%) |
| 2021 | $4.9b (13.8%) | $122.2m (557.5%) | $360.2m (55.7%) | 2.5% (477.8%) | $2.12 (562.5%) |
| 2022 | $5.3b (8.0%) | $198.2m (62.2%) | $345.3m (-4.1%) | 3.8% (50.2%) | $3.61 (70.3%) |
| 2023 | $5.7b (7.5%) | $101.9m (-48.6%) | $580.5m (68.1%) | 1.8% (-52.2%) | $1.90 (-47.4%) |
| 2024 | $5.8b (2.8%) | $189.2m (85.7%) | $236.4m (-59.3%) | 3.3% (80.7%) | $3.68 (93.7%) |
| 2025 | $6.1b (5.0%) | $232.0m (22.6%) | $506.9m (114.4%) | 3.8% (16.8%) | $4.73 (28.5%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in EUR. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.