Discounted Cash Flow
KE Holdings Inc. ADR
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Audit / VIE / HFCA: Chinese ADR (VIE contractual structure, HFCA Act): the PCAOB must inspect the China-based auditor (e.g. Deloitte/EY China) or the ADRs can be delisted; dividends must be repatriated through the WFOE/VIE and can be blocked. The audit relies on contractual VIE control, not equity, adding structural risk.
Sourced live via DEF 14A beneficial_ownership (edgartools proxy) for US filers and 20-F risk_factors (“controls X% of voting power” + VIE/HFCA) for foreign ADRs — cached 12h. A concentrated holder can overrule the DCF’s minority-basis assumptions on dividends, issuance, and delisting.
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | $4.3b | $-355.8m | $382.2m | -8.3% | $-1.75 |
| 2019 | $6.9b (60.6%) | $-325.6m (8.5%) | $-67.0m (-117.5%) | -4.7% (43.0%) | $-2.94 (-68.0%) |
| 2020 | $1.6b (-76.5%) | $63.5m (119.5%) | $63.5m (194.7%) | 3.9% (183.0%) | $0.05 (101.7%) |
| 2021 | $1.9b (17.3%) | $-12.3m (-119.3%) | $404.9m (537.9%) | -0.6% (-116.5%) | $-0.02 (-140.0%) |
| 2022 | $1.3b (-30.6%) | $-30.0m (-144.3%) | $-30.0m (-107.4%) | -2.3% (-252.0%) | $-0.06 (-200.0%) |
| 2023 | $11.6b (784.2%) | $123.6m (512.3%) | $123.6m (512.3%) | 1.1% (146.6%) | $0.24 (500.0%) |
| 2024 | $13.9b (20.2%) | $83.0m (-32.8%) | $1.3b (950.3%) | 0.6% (-44.1%) | $0.16 (-33.3%) |
| 2025 | $14.1b (1.2%) | $63.8m (-23.1%) | $-195.4m (-115.1%) | 0.5% (-24.0%) | $0.13 (-18.8%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in CNY. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.