Discounted Cash Flow
Birks Group Inc. Foreign
—
—
⚠ Cash flow predictability 30/100 (unstable) —
FCF YoY std dev 74%,
net income 78% (full history)
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
—
%
%
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $207.6m | $3.9m | $-1.3m | 1.9% | $0.30 |
| 2017 | $208.4m (0.4%) | $3.6m (-9.4%) | $1.6m (224.3%) | 1.7% (-9.7%) | $0.27 (-10.0%) |
| 2018 | $83.1m (-60.1%) | $8.5m (137.4%) | $-25.0m (-1660.6%) | 10.2% (495.5%) | $0.65 (140.7%) |
| 2019 | $109.7m (32.1%) | $-13.6m (-259.7%) | $-11.8m (52.6%) | -12.4% (-220.9%) | $-1.04 (-260.0%) |
| 2020 | $123.0m (12.2%) | $-9.3m (31.6%) | $-7.4m (37.5%) | -7.5% (39.0%) | $-0.71 (31.7%) |
| 2021 | $103.9m (-15.6%) | $-4.2m (54.3%) | $-3.4m (53.9%) | -4.1% (45.9%) | $-0.32 (54.9%) |
| 2022 | $131.7m (26.8%) | $934.7k (122.0%) | $10.2m (398.7%) | 0.7% (117.4%) | $0.07 (121.9%) |
| 2023 | $118.4m (-10.1%) | $-5.4m (-677.5%) | $-11.1m (-209.0%) | -4.6% (-742.6%) | $-0.40 (-671.4%) |
| 2024 | $134.6m (13.7%) | $-3.4m (37.7%) | $-4.7m (57.8%) | -2.5% (45.2%) | $-0.24 (40.0%) |
| 2025 | $129.1m (-4.0%) | $-9.3m (-176.8%) | $-6.5m (-38.2%) | -7.2% (-188.4%) | $-0.66 (-175.0%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in CAD. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.