Discounted Cash Flow
Baidu, Inc. ADR
—
Audit / VIE / HFCA: Chinese ADR (VIE contractual structure, HFCA Act): the PCAOB must inspect the China-based auditor (e.g. Deloitte/EY China) or the ADRs can be delisted; dividends must be repatriated through the WFOE/VIE and can be blocked. The audit relies on contractual VIE control, not equity, adding structural risk.
Sourced live via DEF 14A beneficial_ownership (edgartools proxy) for US filers and 20-F risk_factors (“controls X% of voting power” + VIE/HFCA) for foreign ADRs — cached 12h. A concentrated holder can overrule the DCF’s minority-basis assumptions on dividends, issuance, and delisting.
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $1.5b | $249.8m | $249.8m | 16.5% | — |
| 2017 | $1.9b (28.3%) | $419.3m (67.8%) | $419.3m (67.8%) | 21.6% (30.8%) | — |
| 2018 | $2.2b (14.1%) | $597.9m (42.6%) | $5.2b (1133.7%) | 27.0% (24.9%) | — |
| 2019 | $2.3b (3.7%) | $44.1m (-92.6%) | $44.1m (-99.1%) | 1.9% (-92.9%) | — |
| 2020 | $2.4b (6.4%) | $513.5m (1063.5%) | $3.5b (7812.5%) | 21.0% (994.0%) | — |
| 2021 | $2.9b (19.0%) | $239.3m (-53.4%) | $239.3m (-93.1%) | 8.2% (-60.9%) | — |
| 2022 | $2.7b (-6.5%) | $163.4m (-31.7%) | $163.4m (-31.7%) | 6.0% (-27.0%) | — |
| 2023 | $2.8b (3.8%) | $426.6m (161.0%) | $426.6m (161.0%) | 15.1% (151.5%) | — |
| 2024 | $2.7b (-3.8%) | $485.4m (13.8%) | $3.0b (603.3%) | 17.8% (18.3%) | — |
| 2025 | $2.8b (1.2%) | $119.1m (-75.5%) | $-706.6m (-123.6%) | 4.3% (-75.7%) | — |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in CNY. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.