Discounted Cash Flow
Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. REIT
—
—
Cash flow predictability 77/100 (stable) —
FCF YoY std dev 16%,
net income 63% (full history)
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
—
%
%
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $424.1m | $322.2m | $320.0m | 76.0% | $2.53 |
| 2017 | $409.7m (-3.4%) | $294.2m (-8.7%) | $307.5m (-3.9%) | 71.8% (-5.5%) | $2.27 (-10.3%) |
| 2018 | $536.0m (30.8%) | $385.4m (31.0%) | $392.1m (27.5%) | 71.9% (0.1%) | $2.50 (10.1%) |
| 2019 | $573.5m (7.0%) | $413.1m (7.2%) | $411.1m (4.8%) | 72.0% (0.2%) | $2.35 (-6.0%) |
| 2020 | $584.3m (1.9%) | $186.1m (-54.9%) | $455.1m (10.7%) | 31.9% (-55.8%) | $0.97 (-58.7%) |
| 2021 | $695.6m (19.0%) | $566.7m (204.5%) | $517.1m (13.6%) | 81.5% (155.8%) | $2.77 (185.6%) |
| 2022 | $0 (-100.0%) | $336.2m (-40.7%) | $536.5m (3.7%) | — | $1.46 (-47.3%) |
| 2023 | $0 | $333.3m (-0.8%) | $620.4m (15.6%) | — | $1.43 (-2.1%) |
| 2024 | $17.6m | $-275.9m (-182.8%) | $494.6m (-20.3%) | -1565.1% | $-1.17 (-181.8%) |
| 2025 | $250.1m (1318.6%) | $148.1m (153.7%) | $373.0m (-24.6%) | 59.2% (103.8%) | $0.64 (154.7%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in GBP. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.