Discounted Cash Flow
Baozun Inc. ADR
—
Audit / VIE / HFCA: Chinese ADR (VIE contractual structure, HFCA Act): the PCAOB must inspect the China-based auditor (e.g. Deloitte/EY China) or the ADRs can be delisted; dividends must be repatriated through the WFOE/VIE and can be blocked. The audit relies on contractual VIE control, not equity, adding structural risk.
Sourced live via DEF 14A beneficial_ownership (edgartools proxy) for US filers and 20-F risk_factors (“controls X% of voting power” + VIE/HFCA) for foreign ADRs — cached 12h. A concentrated holder can overrule the DCF’s minority-basis assumptions on dividends, issuance, and delisting.
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $72.8m | $12.7m | $-1.3m | 17.5% | $0.08 |
| 2017 | $95.1m (30.6%) | $31.2m (144.8%) | $-10.0m (-642.5%) | 32.8% (87.5%) | $0.20 (150.0%) |
| 2018 | $117.0m (23.0%) | $40.2m (29.0%) | $-4.8m (51.9%) | 34.4% (4.9%) | $0.23 (15.0%) |
| 2019 | $155.9m (33.3%) | $-116.5k (-100.3%) | $4.5m (193.7%) | -0.1% (-100.2%) | $0.23 (0.0%) |
| 2020 | $202.3m (29.8%) | $37.9k (132.5%) | $4.5m (1.0%) | 0.0% (125.1%) | $0.35 (52.2%) |
| 2021 | $219.9m (8.7%) | $-1.8m (-4966.9%) | $-8.9m (-296.4%) | -0.8% (-4577.7%) | $-0.16 (-145.7%) |
| 2022 | $1.3b (469.7%) | $-6.5m (-254.0%) | $52.6m (688.7%) | -0.5% (37.9%) | $-0.52 (-225.0%) |
| 2023 | $1.3b (4.9%) | $-6.9m (-5.1%) | $63.4m (20.5%) | -0.5% (-0.1%) | $-0.22 (57.7%) |
| 2024 | $1.4b (6.9%) | $-7.3m (-6.2%) | $12.4m (-80.4%) | -0.5% (0.7%) | $-0.14 (36.4%) |
| 2025 | $212.1m (-84.9%) | $-2.9m (60.8%) | $-2.9m (-123.0%) | -1.3% (-159.9%) | $-0.20 (-42.9%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in CNY. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.