Discounted Cash Flow
Canaan Inc. ADR
—
Audit / VIE / HFCA: Chinese ADR (VIE contractual structure, HFCA Act): the PCAOB must inspect the China-based auditor (e.g. Deloitte/EY China) or the ADRs can be delisted; dividends must be repatriated through the WFOE/VIE and can be blocked. The audit relies on contractual VIE control, not equity, adding structural risk.
Sourced live via DEF 14A beneficial_ownership (edgartools proxy) for US filers and 20-F risk_factors (“controls X% of voting power” + VIE/HFCA) for foreign ADRs — cached 12h. A concentrated holder can overrule the DCF’s minority-basis assumptions on dividends, issuance, and delisting.
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | $195.0m | $56.0m | $11.7m | 28.7% | $19.06 |
| 2018 | $403.3m (106.9%) | $18.3m (-67.4%) | $-5.6m (-147.9%) | 4.5% (-84.3%) | $6.23 (-67.3%) |
| 2019 | $30.5m (-92.4%) | $-154.2m (-945.0%) | $-41.9m (-647.0%) | -506.3% (-11286.3%) | $-6.90 (-210.8%) |
| 2020 | $10.2m (-66.4%) | $-32.1m (79.2%) | $6.3m (114.9%) | -313.5% (38.1%) | $-1.41 (79.6%) |
| 2021 | $116.7m (1040.5%) | $298.2m (1030.0%) | $213.6m (3314.7%) | 255.6% (181.5%) | $12.45 (983.0%) |
| 2022 | $94.6m (-18.9%) | $72.5m (-75.7%) | $-255.0m (-219.4%) | 76.6% (-70.0%) | $2.75 (-77.9%) |
| 2023 | $31.5m (-66.7%) | $-61.7m (-185.2%) | $-18.9m (92.6%) | -195.8% (-355.6%) | $-16.06 (-684.0%) |
| 2024 | $40.2m (27.4%) | $-37.2m (39.7%) | $-32.6m (-72.2%) | -92.7% (52.6%) | $-6.13 (61.8%) |
| 2025 | $79.0m (96.7%) | $-31.3m (15.8%) | $-44.1m (-35.4%) | -39.7% (57.2%) | $-2.99 (51.2%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in CNY. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.