Discounted Cash Flow
Cango Inc. ADR
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Audit / VIE / HFCA: Chinese ADR (VIE contractual structure, HFCA Act): the PCAOB must inspect the China-based auditor (e.g. Deloitte/EY China) or the ADRs can be delisted; dividends must be repatriated through the WFOE/VIE and can be blocked. The audit relies on contractual VIE control, not equity, adding structural risk. Financial-sector DCF: free cash flow for lenders/insurers includes loan principal and deposits, so FCF ≈ 5-10× net income and is not a valuation proxy; the model shows moderate/unstable predictability and the DCF can be 5-40× market cap (lender pattern).
Sourced live via DEF 14A beneficial_ownership (edgartools proxy) for US filers and 20-F risk_factors (“controls X% of voting power” + VIE/HFCA) for foreign ADRs — cached 12h. A concentrated holder can overrule the DCF’s minority-basis assumptions on dividends, issuance, and delisting.
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | $156.9m | $69.8m | $86.4m | 44.5% | — |
| 2018 | $162.7m (3.7%) | $59.0m (-15.5%) | $25.4m (-70.6%) | 36.3% (-18.5%) | — |
| 2019 | $214.7m (31.9%) | $72.7m (23.2%) | $56.6m (122.9%) | 33.9% (-6.6%) | — |
| 2020 | $306.0m (42.5%) | $558.0m (667.3%) | $-93.5m (-265.0%) | 182.4% (438.4%) | — |
| 2021 | $584.6m (91.1%) | $1.8m (-99.7%) | $-63.1m (32.5%) | 0.3% (-99.8%) | — |
| 2022 | $295.2m (-49.5%) | $-130.4m (-7205.1%) | $-85.3m (-35.1%) | -44.2% (-14169.5%) | — |
| 2023 | $253.7m (-14.1%) | $8.3m (106.4%) | $820.0k (101.0%) | 3.3% (107.4%) | $0.01 |
| 2024 | $119.9m (-52.7%) | $44.9m (441.8%) | $-12.0m (-1559.2%) | 37.4% (1046.1%) | $0.02 (100.0%) |
| 2025 | $102.6m (-14.5%) | $-67.4m (-250.1%) | $-15.6m (-30.6%) | -65.7% (-275.5%) | $-1.60 (-8100.0%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in CNY. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.