Discounted Cash Flow
Crown Holdings, Inc.
—
Sales growth has weakened: 13.6% (2022) → -7.2% (2023) → -1.7% (2024) → 4.8% (2025). Revenue growth has been decelerating or declining in recent years and is now 4.8% — a slowing company may not sustain the growth the DCF projects, so the valuation could be overstated.
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $9.6b | $576.2m | $530.9m | 6.0% | $3.58 |
| 2017 | $10.1b (5.0%) | $375.2m (-34.9%) | $-870.0m (-263.9%) | 3.7% (-38.0%) | $2.39 (-33.2%) |
| 2018 | $13.0b (28.2%) | $509.9m (35.9%) | $126.6m (114.6%) | 3.9% (6.0%) | $3.28 (37.2%) |
| 2019 | $13.6b (4.6%) | $592.4m (16.2%) | $849.1m (570.6%) | 4.4% (11.1%) | $3.81 (16.2%) |
| 2020 | $13.4b (-0.8%) | $672.6m (13.5%) | $845.6m (-0.4%) | 5.0% (14.4%) | $4.34 (13.9%) |
| 2021 | $13.2b (-1.6%) | $-650.5m (-196.7%) | $137.1m (-83.8%) | -4.9% (-198.3%) | $-4.30 (-199.1%) |
| 2022 | $15.0b (13.6%) | $844.5m (229.8%) | $-41.8m (-130.5%) | 5.6% (214.3%) | $6.01 (239.8%) |
| 2023 | $14.0b (-7.2%) | $522.7m (-38.1%) | $766.7m (1933.3%) | 3.7% (-33.3%) | $3.77 (-37.3%) |
| 2024 | $13.7b (-1.7%) | $492.5m (-5.8%) | $916.5m (19.5%) | 3.6% (-4.1%) | $3.56 (-5.6%) |
| 2025 | $14.4b (4.8%) | $857.3m (74.1%) | $1.3b (41.6%) | 6.0% (66.1%) | $6.41 (80.1%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in EUR. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.