Discounted Cash Flow
Concord Medical Services Holdings Ltd. ADR
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Audit / VIE / HFCA: Chinese ADR (VIE contractual structure, HFCA Act): the PCAOB must inspect the China-based auditor (e.g. Deloitte/EY China) or the ADRs can be delisted; dividends must be repatriated through the WFOE/VIE and can be blocked. The audit relies on contractual VIE control, not equity, adding structural risk.
Sourced live via DEF 14A beneficial_ownership (edgartools proxy) for US filers and 20-F risk_factors (“controls X% of voting power” + VIE/HFCA) for foreign ADRs — cached 12h. A concentrated holder can overrule the DCF’s minority-basis assumptions on dividends, issuance, and delisting.
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $9.7m | $-5.6m | $-13.3m | -57.5% | $-0.29 |
| 2017 | $7.6m (-22.4%) | $-6.5m (-15.9%) | $1.9m (114.2%) | -85.9% (-49.3%) | — |
| 2018 | $4.1m (-45.4%) | $-5.1m (21.8%) | $-9.3m (-593.3%) | -123.0% (-43.2%) | — |
| 2019 | $4.2m (2.6%) | $-6.6m (-29.1%) | $-34.0m (-265.0%) | -154.8% (-25.8%) | — |
| 2020 | $5.1m (20.0%) | $-7.1m (-7.7%) | $-38.0m (-11.7%) | -139.0% (10.2%) | — |
| 2021 | $11.3m (123.0%) | $-6.3m (10.3%) | $-59.9m (-57.8%) | -55.9% (59.8%) | — |
| 2022 | $10.2m (-10.2%) | $-10.6m (-66.7%) | $-37.0m (38.2%) | -103.7% (-85.6%) | $-0.54 |
| 2023 | $11.3m (10.6%) | $-6.2m (40.9%) | $-43.5m (-17.4%) | -55.4% (46.6%) | $-0.32 (40.7%) |
| 2024 | $7.8m (-30.5%) | $-6.3m (-0.7%) | $-62.2m (-43.1%) | -80.3% (-44.9%) | $-0.32 (0.0%) |
| 2025 | $9.8m (25.2%) | $-2.0m (68.6%) | $-2.0m (96.8%) | -20.2% (74.9%) | $-0.10 (68.8%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in CNY. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.