Discounted Cash Flow
Caredx, Inc.
—
—
⚠ Cash flow predictability 43/100 (moderate) —
FCF YoY std dev 71%,
net income 70% (full history)
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
—
%
%
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $4.2m | $-4.1m | $-1.8m | -97.1% | $-2.39 |
| 2017 | $5.0m (18.9%) | $-5.8m (-40.5%) | $-1.5m (15.1%) | -114.8% (-18.2%) | $-2.38 (0.4%) |
| 2018 | $7.9m (58.4%) | $-4.8m (15.7%) | $-626.7k (58.3%) | -61.1% (46.8%) | $-1.31 (45.0%) |
| 2019 | $13.2m (66.0%) | $-2.3m (53.0%) | $-287.2k (54.2%) | -17.3% (71.7%) | $-0.52 (60.3%) |
| 2020 | $19.9m (51.3%) | $-1.9m (14.8%) | $3.5m (1307.3%) | -9.7% (43.7%) | $-0.40 (23.1%) |
| 2021 | $30.7m (54.2%) | $-3.2m (-63.8%) | $-2.0m (-157.7%) | -10.3% (-6.2%) | $-0.59 (-47.5%) |
| 2022 | $33.4m (8.6%) | $-7.9m (-149.9%) | $-5.1m (-156.9%) | -23.8% (-130.1%) | $-1.44 (-144.1%) |
| 2023 | $29.1m (-12.9%) | $-19.7m (-148.4%) | $-2.9m (44.3%) | -67.9% (-185.1%) | $-3.54 (-145.8%) |
| 2024 | $34.6m (19.1%) | $5.5m (127.6%) | $3.3m (214.2%) | 15.7% (123.2%) | $1.00 (128.2%) |
| 2025 | $39.4m (13.8%) | $-2.2m (-140.6%) | $3.7m (12.3%) | -5.6% (-135.7%) | $-0.40 (-140.0%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in SEK. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.