Discounted Cash Flow
Carlyle Group Inc. LP
—
Audit / VIE / HFCA: Financial-sector DCF: free cash flow for lenders/insurers includes loan principal and deposits, so FCF ≈ 5-10× net income and is not a valuation proxy; the model shows moderate/unstable predictability and the DCF can be 5-40× market cap (lender pattern).
Sourced live via DEF 14A beneficial_ownership (edgartools proxy) for US filers and 20-F risk_factors (“controls X% of voting power” + VIE/HFCA) for foreign ADRs — cached 12h. A concentrated holder can overrule the DCF’s minority-basis assumptions on dividends, issuance, and delisting.
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $3.1b | $8.7m | $-440.8m | 0.3% | $0.08 |
| 2017 | $5.0b (61.6%) | $330.0m (3714.1%) | $-55.6m (87.4%) | 6.6% (2259.6%) | $2.58 (3125.0%) |
| 2018 | $3.3b (-34.0%) | $157.5m (-52.3%) | $-506.7m (-811.9%) | 4.8% (-27.7%) | $0.89 (-65.5%) |
| 2019 | $4.6b (39.1%) | $515.0m (227.0%) | $447.2m (188.3%) | 11.3% (135.0%) | $3.05 (242.7%) |
| 2020 | $4.0b (-13.1%) | $470.8m (-8.6%) | $-311.5m (-169.6%) | 11.9% (5.2%) | $0.99 (-67.5%) |
| 2021 | $11.9b (199.3%) | $4.0b (754.3%) | $2.4b (859.4%) | 33.9% (185.5%) | $8.37 (745.5%) |
| 2022 | $6.0b (-49.5%) | $1.7b (-58.8%) | $-567.7m (-124.0%) | 27.6% (-18.5%) | $3.39 (-59.5%) |
| 2023 | $4.0b (-33.2%) | $-822.6m (-149.7%) | $187.0m (132.9%) | -20.5% (-174.4%) | $-1.68 (-149.6%) |
| 2024 | $7.3b (83.1%) | $1.4b (267.7%) | $-1.1b (-705.4%) | 18.8% (191.6%) | $2.85 (269.6%) |
| 2025 | $6.5b (-11.9%) | $1.1b (-20.7%) | $-4.6b (-303.1%) | 16.9% (-10.0%) | $2.25 (-21.1%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in GBP. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.