Discounted Cash Flow
Chagee Holdings Ltd. ADR
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Audit / VIE / HFCA: Chinese ADR (VIE contractual structure, HFCA Act): the PCAOB must inspect the China-based auditor (e.g. Deloitte/EY China) or the ADRs can be delisted; dividends must be repatriated through the WFOE/VIE and can be blocked. The audit relies on contractual VIE control, not equity, adding structural risk.
Sourced live via DEF 14A beneficial_ownership (edgartools proxy) for US filers and 20-F risk_factors (“controls X% of voting power” + VIE/HFCA) for foreign ADRs — cached 12h. A concentrated holder can overrule the DCF’s minority-basis assumptions on dividends, issuance, and delisting.
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | — | $-3.5k | — | — | $0.00 |
| 2018 | — | $-4.8k (-37.7%) | — | — | $-0.00 |
| 2019 | $89 | $-4.2k (11.8%) | — | -4719.0% | $-0.00 |
| 2020 | $0 (-100.0%) | $-4.0k (5.3%) | — | — | $-0.00 |
| 2021 | — | $-4.3k (-7.1%) | — | — | $-0.00 |
| 2022 | $73.3m | $-13.5m (-315763.5%) | $-1.6m | -18.5% | $-0.00 |
| 2023 | $691.9m (843.8%) | $-248.0k (98.2%) | $288.0m (18091.7%) | -0.0% (99.8%) | $5.04 |
| 2024 | $1.8b (167.4%) | $-2.6m (-944.4%) | $389.5m (35.2%) | -0.1% (-290.6%) | $14.26 (182.9%) |
| 2025 | $1.9b (4.0%) | $-2.3m (12.5%) | $236.3m (-39.3%) | -0.1% (15.9%) | $0.90 (-93.7%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in CNY. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.