Discounted Cash Flow
Church & Dwight Co. Inc.
—
Sales growth has weakened: 3.6% (2022) → 9.2% (2023) → 4.1% (2024) → 1.6% (2025). Revenue growth has been decelerating or declining in recent years and is now 1.6% — a slowing company may not sustain the growth the DCF projects, so the valuation could be overstated.
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $683.5m | $89.8m | $118.5m | 13.1% | $1.78 |
| 2017 | $738.9m (8.1%) | $145.5m (62.0%) | $124.5m (5.1%) | 19.7% (49.8%) | $2.97 (66.9%) |
| 2018 | $811.2m (9.8%) | $111.3m (-23.5%) | $137.6m (10.5%) | 13.7% (-30.3%) | $2.32 (-21.9%) |
| 2019 | $852.7m (5.1%) | $120.5m (8.3%) | $154.7m (12.5%) | 14.1% (3.1%) | $2.50 (7.8%) |
| 2020 | $958.0m (12.3%) | $153.8m (27.6%) | $174.4m (12.7%) | 16.1% (13.6%) | $3.18 (27.2%) |
| 2021 | $1.0b (6.0%) | $161.9m (5.3%) | $171.2m (-1.8%) | 15.9% (-0.7%) | $3.38 (6.3%) |
| 2022 | $1.1b (3.6%) | $81.0m (-50.0%) | $138.2m (-19.3%) | 7.7% (-51.7%) | $1.70 (-49.7%) |
| 2023 | $1.1b (9.2%) | $147.8m (82.6%) | $157.9m (14.3%) | 12.9% (67.2%) | $3.09 (81.8%) |
| 2024 | $1.2b (4.1%) | $114.5m (-22.5%) | $191.1m (21.0%) | 9.6% (-25.6%) | $2.39 (-22.7%) |
| 2025 | $1.2b (1.6%) | $144.2m (25.9%) | $213.9m (11.9%) | 11.9% (23.9%) | $3.04 (27.2%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in BRL. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.