Discounted Cash Flow
Cheer Holding, Inc. Foreign
—
Sales growth has weakened: 2.7% (2022) → -3.0% (2023) → -3.4% (2024) → 1.1% (2025). Revenue growth has been decelerating or declining in recent years and is now 1.1% — a slowing company may not sustain the growth the DCF projects, so the valuation could be overstated.
Audit / VIE / HFCA: Chinese ADR (VIE contractual structure, HFCA Act): the PCAOB must inspect the China-based auditor (e.g. Deloitte/EY China) or the ADRs can be delisted; dividends must be repatriated through the WFOE/VIE and can be blocked. The audit relies on contractual VIE control, not equity, adding structural risk.
Sourced live via DEF 14A beneficial_ownership (edgartools proxy) for US filers and 20-F risk_factors (“controls X% of voting power” + VIE/HFCA) for foreign ADRs — cached 12h. A concentrated holder can overrule the DCF’s minority-basis assumptions on dividends, issuance, and delisting.
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | $9.8m | $3.9m | $3.9m | 40.0% | $0.64 |
| 2020 | $18.5m (88.2%) | $4.4m (11.2%) | $1.3m (-66.7%) | 23.7% (-40.9%) | $0.54 (-15.2%) |
| 2021 | $22.8m (23.6%) | $5.3m (20.5%) | $6.9m (434.2%) | 23.1% (-2.5%) | $0.54 (-0.4%) |
| 2022 | $23.4m (2.7%) | $4.0m (-23.8%) | $1.2m (-83.4%) | 17.1% (-25.8%) | $0.39 (-28.2%) |
| 2023 | $22.7m (-3.0%) | $4.5m (13.3%) | $6.3m (446.7%) | 20.0% (16.9%) | $3.53 (810.6%) |
| 2024 | $21.9m (-3.4%) | $3.9m (-14.8%) | $3.4m (-45.8%) | 17.6% (-11.8%) | $2.51 (-28.9%) |
| 2025 | $22.2m (1.1%) | $3.8m (-1.3%) | $2.6m (-24.7%) | 17.2% (-2.4%) | $24.07 (857.2%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in CNY. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.