Discounted Cash Flow
Ciena Corp.
—
—
⚠ Cash flow predictability 45/100 (moderate) —
FCF YoY std dev 64%,
net income 72% (full history)
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
—
%
%
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $1.9b | $52.5m | $132.0m | 2.8% | $0.52 |
| 2017 | $2.0b (7.7%) | $913.4m (1638.6%) | $101.5m (-23.1%) | 45.0% (1513.8%) | $8.89 (1609.6%) |
| 2018 | $2.2b (10.4%) | $-249.5m (-127.3%) | $117.0m (15.2%) | -11.1% (-124.7%) | $-2.40 (-127.0%) |
| 2019 | $2.6b (15.4%) | $183.4m (173.5%) | $253.7m (116.9%) | 7.1% (163.7%) | $1.63 (167.9%) |
| 2020 | $2.6b (-1.1%) | $261.5m (42.6%) | $297.5m (17.2%) | 10.2% (44.2%) | $2.34 (43.6%) |
| 2021 | $2.6b (2.5%) | $362.0m (38.4%) | $334.5m (12.4%) | 13.8% (35.1%) | $3.22 (37.6%) |
| 2022 | $2.6b (0.3%) | $110.7m (-69.4%) | $-187.2m (-156.0%) | 4.2% (-69.5%) | $1.01 (-68.6%) |
| 2023 | $3.2b (20.8%) | $184.4m (66.7%) | $45.0m (124.0%) | 5.8% (38.0%) | $1.71 (69.3%) |
| 2024 | $2.9b (-8.5%) | $60.8m (-67.1%) | $273.5m (508.2%) | 2.1% (-64.0%) | $0.58 (-66.1%) |
| 2025 | $3.5b (18.8%) | $89.3m (46.9%) | $481.5m (76.1%) | 2.6% (23.7%) | $0.87 (50.0%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in CAD. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.