Discounted Cash Flow
Columbia Financial, Inc.
—
Sales growth has weakened: 14.6% (2022) → 27.5% (2023) → 14.3% (2024) → 4.3% (2025). Revenue growth has been decelerating or declining in recent years and is now 4.3% — a slowing company may not sustain the growth the DCF projects, so the valuation could be overstated.
Audit / VIE / HFCA: Financial-sector DCF: free cash flow for lenders/insurers includes loan principal and deposits, so FCF ≈ 5-10× net income and is not a valuation proxy; the model shows moderate/unstable predictability and the DCF can be 5-40× market cap (lender pattern).
Sourced live via DEF 14A beneficial_ownership (edgartools proxy) for US filers and 20-F risk_factors (“controls X% of voting power” + VIE/HFCA) for foreign ADRs — cached 12h. A concentrated holder can overrule the DCF’s minority-basis assumptions on dividends, issuance, and delisting.
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | $184.2m | $31.1m | $36.0m | 16.9% | — |
| 2018 | $226.3m (22.8%) | $22.7m (-26.8%) | $60.2m (67.1%) | 10.0% (-40.4%) | $0.20 |
| 2019 | $261.1m (15.4%) | $54.7m (140.7%) | $123.8m (105.6%) | 21.0% (108.6%) | $0.49 (145.0%) |
| 2020 | $295.7m (13.3%) | $57.6m (5.3%) | $47.9m (-61.3%) | 19.5% (-7.1%) | $0.52 (6.1%) |
| 2021 | $270.1m (-8.6%) | $92.0m (59.8%) | $98.7m (106.1%) | 34.1% (74.9%) | $0.88 (69.2%) |
| 2022 | $309.7m (14.6%) | $86.2m (-6.4%) | $142.2m (44.0%) | 27.8% (-18.3%) | $0.82 (-6.8%) |
| 2023 | $395.0m (27.5%) | $36.1m (-58.1%) | $40.7m (-71.4%) | 9.1% (-67.2%) | $0.35 (-57.3%) |
| 2024 | $451.4m (14.3%) | $-11.7m (-132.3%) | $33.3m (-18.2%) | -2.6% (-128.3%) | $-0.11 (-131.4%) |
| 2025 | $471.0m (4.3%) | $51.8m (544.2%) | $68.4m (105.3%) | 11.0% (525.8%) | $0.51 (563.6%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.