Discounted Cash Flow
Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce /Can/ Foreign
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Audit / VIE / HFCA: Financial-sector DCF: free cash flow for lenders/insurers includes loan principal and deposits, so FCF ≈ 5-10× net income and is not a valuation proxy; the model shows moderate/unstable predictability and the DCF can be 5-40× market cap (lender pattern).
Sourced live via DEF 14A beneficial_ownership (edgartools proxy) for US filers and 20-F risk_factors (“controls X% of voting power” + VIE/HFCA) for foreign ADRs — cached 12h. A concentrated holder can overrule the DCF’s minority-basis assumptions on dividends, issuance, and delisting.
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $10.9b | $3.1b | $7.4b | 28.4% | $10.72 |
| 2017 | $11.8b (8.3%) | $3.4b (9.9%) | $1.8b (-75.9%) | 28.9% (1.5%) | $11.26 (5.0%) |
| 2018 | $12.9b (9.5%) | $3.8b (12.1%) | $7.1b (301.6%) | 29.5% (2.3%) | $11.69 (3.8%) |
| 2019 | $13.5b (4.4%) | $3.7b (-3.2%) | $13.5b (88.9%) | 27.4% (-7.3%) | $11.22 (-4.0%) |
| 2020 | $13.6b (0.7%) | $2.7b (-25.6%) | $2.7b (-79.7%) | 20.2% (-26.1%) | $8.23 (-26.6%) |
| 2021 | $14.5b (6.8%) | $4.7b (69.6%) | $-2.4b (-187.9%) | 32.1% (58.8%) | $13.97 (69.7%) |
| 2022 | $15.8b (9.1%) | $4.5b (-3.3%) | $15.9b (757.7%) | 28.5% (-11.3%) | $6.70 (-52.0%) |
| 2023 | $16.9b (6.8%) | $3.6b (-19.7%) | $8.8b (-44.5%) | 21.4% (-24.8%) | $5.16 (-23.0%) |
| 2024 | $18.5b (9.8%) | $5.1b (42.4%) | $7.3b (-16.8%) | 27.8% (29.7%) | $7.29 (41.3%) |
| 2025 | $21.1b (13.8%) | $6.1b (18.5%) | $9.0b (23.5%) | 28.9% (4.1%) | $8.62 (18.2%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in CAD. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.