Discounted Cash Flow
Cnfinance Holdings Ltd. ADR
—
Audit / VIE / HFCA: Chinese ADR (VIE contractual structure, HFCA Act): the PCAOB must inspect the China-based auditor (e.g. Deloitte/EY China) or the ADRs can be delisted; dividends must be repatriated through the WFOE/VIE and can be blocked. The audit relies on contractual VIE control, not equity, adding structural risk.
Sourced live via DEF 14A beneficial_ownership (edgartools proxy) for US filers and 20-F risk_factors (“controls X% of voting power” + VIE/HFCA) for foreign ADRs — cached 12h. A concentrated holder can overrule the DCF’s minority-basis assumptions on dividends, issuance, and delisting.
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | — | $79.4m | $188.9m | — | $0.43 |
| 2018 | — | $128.4m (61.6%) | $195.3m (3.4%) | — | $0.69 (60.5%) |
| 2019 | — | $79.7m (-37.9%) | $193.0m (-1.2%) | — | $0.39 (-43.5%) |
| 2020 | — | $-7.5m (-109.5%) | $166.5m (-13.8%) | — | $0.08 (-79.5%) |
| 2021 | $16.0k | $-71.5m (-847.7%) | $102.3m (-38.6%) | -447908.7% | $0.05 (-37.5%) |
| 2022 | $158.0m (989437.9%) | $144.7k (100.2%) | $123.7m (20.9%) | 0.1% (100.0%) | $0.10 (100.0%) |
| 2023 | $166.1m (5.2%) | $2.9m (1896.9%) | $2.9m (-97.7%) | 1.7% (1799.0%) | $0.12 (20.0%) |
| 2024 | $120.1m (-27.7%) | $-968.9k (-133.5%) | $111.7m (3766.8%) | -0.8% (-146.4%) | $0.03 (-75.0%) |
| 2025 | $20.2m (-83.1%) | $-3.1m (-222.7%) | $12.1m (-89.2%) | -15.4% (-1814.9%) | $-0.34 (-1233.3%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in CNY. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.