Discounted Cash Flow

Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. Foreign

CNQ · Based on 10 years of SEC filings · Converted from CAD to USD

⚠ Cash flow predictability 66/100 (moderate) — FCF YoY std dev 48%, net income 77% (full history)

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income
Dividends

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $7.6b $-16.7m $2.5b -0.2% $-0.19
2017 $12.1b (58.2%) $-21.8m (-30.2%) $5.3b (110.5%) -0.2% (17.7%) $2.04 (1173.7%)
2018 $15.3b (26.3%) $-4.5m (79.4%) $6.4b (21.8%) -0.0% (83.7%) $2.13 (4.4%)
2019 $16.6b (8.8%) $-31.3m (-596.9%) $5.7b (-10.8%) -0.2% (-540.7%) $4.55 (113.6%)
2020 $12.3b (-26.1%) $17.7m (156.5%) $3.2b (-43.7%) 0.1% (176.5%) $-0.37 (-108.1%)
2021 $21.8b (77.9%) $-35.0m (-297.9%) $9.4b (190.3%) -0.2% (-211.2%) $6.49 (1854.1%)
2022 $30.7b (40.7%) $-17.9m (48.9%) $10.0b (7.2%) -0.1% (63.7%) $9.64 (48.5%)
2023 $26.1b (-15.0%) $6.0b (33536.2%) $6.6b (-34.6%) 22.9% (39420.7%) $7.54 (-21.8%)
2024 $25.9b (-0.9%) $4.4b (-25.8%) $7.8b (18.7%) 17.1% (-25.2%) $2.87 (-61.9%)
2025 $28.2b (8.7%) $7.9b (77.2%) $9.9b (27.3%) 27.9% (63.0%) $5.17 (80.1%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

SEC filings report in CAD. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model