Discounted Cash Flow
Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. Foreign
—
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $7.6b | $-16.7m | $2.5b | -0.2% | $-0.19 |
| 2017 | $12.1b (58.2%) | $-21.8m (-30.2%) | $5.3b (110.5%) | -0.2% (17.7%) | $2.04 (1173.7%) |
| 2018 | $15.3b (26.3%) | $-4.5m (79.4%) | $6.4b (21.8%) | -0.0% (83.7%) | $2.13 (4.4%) |
| 2019 | $16.6b (8.8%) | $-31.3m (-596.9%) | $5.7b (-10.8%) | -0.2% (-540.7%) | $4.55 (113.6%) |
| 2020 | $12.3b (-26.1%) | $17.7m (156.5%) | $3.2b (-43.7%) | 0.1% (176.5%) | $-0.37 (-108.1%) |
| 2021 | $21.8b (77.9%) | $-35.0m (-297.9%) | $9.4b (190.3%) | -0.2% (-211.2%) | $6.49 (1854.1%) |
| 2022 | $30.7b (40.7%) | $-17.9m (48.9%) | $10.0b (7.2%) | -0.1% (63.7%) | $9.64 (48.5%) |
| 2023 | $26.1b (-15.0%) | $6.0b (33536.2%) | $6.6b (-34.6%) | 22.9% (39420.7%) | $7.54 (-21.8%) |
| 2024 | $25.9b (-0.9%) | $4.4b (-25.8%) | $7.8b (18.7%) | 17.1% (-25.2%) | $2.87 (-61.9%) |
| 2025 | $28.2b (8.7%) | $7.9b (77.2%) | $9.9b (27.3%) | 27.9% (63.0%) | $5.17 (80.1%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in CAD. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.