Discounted Cash Flow
51talk Online Education Group ADR
—
Audit / VIE / HFCA: Chinese ADR (VIE contractual structure, HFCA Act): the PCAOB must inspect the China-based auditor (e.g. Deloitte/EY China) or the ADRs can be delisted; dividends must be repatriated through the WFOE/VIE and can be blocked. The audit relies on contractual VIE control, not equity, adding structural risk.
Sourced live via DEF 14A beneficial_ownership (edgartools proxy) for US filers and 20-F risk_factors (“controls X% of voting power” + VIE/HFCA) for foreign ADRs — cached 12h. A concentrated holder can overrule the DCF’s minority-basis assumptions on dividends, issuance, and delisting.
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $9.0m | $-11.1m | $3.5m | -123.1% | — |
| 2017 | $19.4m (116.3%) | $-13.3m (-20.4%) | $7.4m (112.3%) | -68.5% (44.3%) | — |
| 2018 | $24.8m (27.8%) | $-9.0m (32.1%) | $4.1m (-45.2%) | -36.4% (46.9%) | — |
| 2019 | $31.7m (27.5%) | $-2.2m (75.2%) | $-2.2m (-155.1%) | -7.1% (80.6%) | — |
| 2020 | $46.9m (48.2%) | $3.4m (250.2%) | $3.4m (250.2%) | 7.2% (201.3%) | $0.07 |
| 2021 | $51.0m (8.7%) | $2.8m (-16.0%) | $2.8m (-16.0%) | 5.5% (-22.7%) | $0.06 (-14.3%) |
| 2022 | $2.2m (-95.6%) | $-6.3m (-324.9%) | $-6.8m (-341.6%) | -282.8% (-5216.7%) | — |
| 2023 | $4.0m (80.2%) | $-2.2m (64.7%) | $40.5k (100.6%) | -55.4% (80.4%) | — |
| 2024 | $7.6m (87.0%) | $-1.1m (51.9%) | $823.5k (1930.9%) | -14.3% (74.3%) | — |
| 2025 | $14.3m (88.6%) | $-2.5m (-132.3%) | $1.4m (72.3%) | -17.6% (-23.2%) | $-0.05 |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in CNY. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.