Discounted Cash Flow
Columbia Sportswear Co.
—
Sales growth has weakened: 10.8% (2022) → 0.7% (2023) → -3.4% (2024) → 0.9% (2025). Revenue growth has been decelerating or declining in recent years and is now 0.9% — a slowing company may not sustain the growth the DCF projects, so the valuation could be overstated.
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $354.4m | $28.6m | $33.6m | 8.1% | $2.75 |
| 2017 | $367.7m (3.7%) | $15.7m (-45.2%) | $42.9m (27.8%) | 4.3% (-47.2%) | $1.51 (-45.1%) |
| 2018 | $417.9m (13.6%) | $40.0m (155.2%) | $33.4m (-22.2%) | 9.6% (124.6%) | $3.85 (155.0%) |
| 2019 | $453.7m (8.6%) | $49.3m (23.2%) | $24.1m (-27.7%) | 10.9% (13.5%) | $4.87 (26.5%) |
| 2020 | $373.0m (-17.8%) | $16.1m (-67.3%) | $36.9m (52.7%) | 4.3% (-60.3%) | $1.63 (-66.5%) |
| 2021 | $466.2m (25.0%) | $52.8m (227.8%) | $47.7m (29.3%) | 11.3% (162.3%) | $5.37 (229.4%) |
| 2022 | $516.5m (10.8%) | $46.4m (-12.0%) | $-12.5m (-126.2%) | 9.0% (-20.6%) | $4.96 (-7.6%) |
| 2023 | $520.0m (0.7%) | $37.5m (-19.3%) | $86.7m (794.9%) | 7.2% (-19.8%) | $4.11 (-17.1%) |
| 2024 | $502.3m (-3.4%) | $33.3m (-11.2%) | $64.3m (-25.9%) | 6.6% (-8.1%) | $3.83 (-6.8%) |
| 2025 | $506.6m (0.9%) | $26.4m (-20.6%) | $32.3m (-49.7%) | 5.2% (-21.3%) | $3.24 (-15.4%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in CNY. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.