Discounted Cash Flow
Conocophillips
—
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | — | $-4.2b | $-541.3m | — | $-2.91 |
| 2017 | — | $-993.2m (76.3%) | $2.9b (633.5%) | — | $-0.70 (75.9%) |
| 2018 | — | $7.3b (831.8%) | $7.2b (148.8%) | — | $5.36 (865.7%) |
| 2019 | — | $8.4b (14.9%) | $5.2b (-27.7%) | — | $6.43 (20.0%) |
| 2020 | $22.4b | $-3.1b (-137.6%) | $101.1m (-98.1%) | -14.0% | $-2.51 (-139.0%) |
| 2021 | $56.2b (151.1%) | $9.4b (399.1%) | $13.6b (13316.1%) | 16.7% (219.1%) | $6.09 (342.6%) |
| 2022 | $95.4b (69.9%) | $21.7b (131.2%) | $21.1b (55.5%) | 22.7% (36.1%) | $14.62 (140.1%) |
| 2023 | $68.0b (-28.7%) | $12.7b (-41.3%) | $10.1b (-52.0%) | 18.7% (-17.7%) | $9.08 (-37.9%) |
| 2024 | $66.2b (-2.8%) | $10.7b (-15.6%) | $9.3b (-8.2%) | 16.2% (-13.2%) | $7.82 (-13.9%) |
| 2025 | $71.5b (8.1%) | $9.3b (-13.6%) | $8.4b (-9.5%) | 13.0% (-20.0%) | $6.36 (-18.7%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in EUR. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.