Discounted Cash Flow
Coty Inc.
—
Sales growth has weakened: 14.6% (2022) → 4.7% (2023) → 10.2% (2024) → -3.7% (2025). Revenue growth has been decelerating or declining in recent years and is now -3.7% — a slowing company may not sustain the growth the DCF projects, so the valuation could be overstated.
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $5.9b | $212.1m | $475.0m | 3.6% | $0.45 |
| 2017 | $10.3b (75.9%) | $-570.8m (-369.1%) | $439.7m (-7.4%) | -5.5% (-253.0%) | $-0.66 (-246.7%) |
| 2018 | $12.7b (22.8%) | $-228.2m (60.0%) | $-44.2m (-110.1%) | -1.8% (67.5%) | $-0.23 (65.2%) |
| 2019 | $11.7b (-8.0%) | $-5.1b (-2141.8%) | $288.0m (751.4%) | -43.8% (-2336.1%) | $-5.04 (-2091.3%) |
| 2020 | $6.4b (-45.4%) | $-1.4b (73.4%) | $-430.3m (-249.4%) | -21.3% (51.2%) | $-1.33 (73.6%) |
| 2021 | $6.3b (-1.9%) | $-272.2m (80.0%) | $195.8m (145.5%) | -4.3% (79.6%) | $-0.40 (69.9%) |
| 2022 | $7.2b (14.6%) | $350.8m (228.9%) | $747.0m (281.6%) | 4.9% (212.5%) | $0.08 (120.0%) |
| 2023 | $7.5b (4.7%) | $687.1m (95.8%) | $544.7m (-27.1%) | 9.1% (87.0%) | $0.58 (625.0%) |
| 2024 | $8.3b (10.2%) | $120.9m (-82.4%) | $499.4m (-8.3%) | 1.5% (-84.0%) | $0.09 (-84.5%) |
| 2025 | $8.0b (-3.7%) | $-497.4m (-511.5%) | $375.3m (-24.9%) | -6.2% (-527.2%) | $-0.44 (-588.9%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in GBP. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.