Discounted Cash Flow
Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd./Cn
—
Sales growth has weakened: 10.3% (2022) → 42.5% (2023) → 15.8% (2024) → 3.9% (2025). Revenue growth has been decelerating or declining in recent years and is now 3.9% — a slowing company may not sustain the growth the DCF projects, so the valuation could be overstated.
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $4.5b | $1.2b | $656.5m | 25.7% | $10.69 |
| 2017 | $4.7b (5.2%) | $1.7b (50.4%) | $609.4m (-7.2%) | 36.7% (43.0%) | $16.49 (54.3%) |
| 2018 | $5.3b (10.7%) | $1.4b (-18.9%) | $840.3m (37.9%) | 26.9% (-26.7%) | $13.65 (-17.2%) |
| 2019 | $5.6b (6.5%) | $1.8b (25.1%) | $972.0m (15.7%) | 31.6% (17.4%) | $17.58 (28.8%) |
| 2020 | $5.5b (-1.0%) | $1.8b (0.2%) | $818.6m (-15.8%) | 32.0% (1.2%) | $18.05 (2.7%) |
| 2021 | $5.7b (3.5%) | $2.1b (16.7%) | $1.6b (90.6%) | 36.0% (12.7%) | $4.20 (-76.7%) |
| 2022 | $6.3b (10.3%) | $2.5b (23.3%) | $1.9b (19.9%) | 40.3% (11.8%) | $3.78 (-10.0%) |
| 2023 | $9.0b (42.5%) | $2.8b (11.7%) | $1.2b (-35.4%) | 31.6% (-21.7%) | $4.22 (11.6%) |
| 2024 | $10.4b (15.8%) | $2.7b (-5.3%) | $1.8b (46.4%) | 25.8% (-18.3%) | $3.98 (-5.7%) |
| 2025 | $10.8b (3.9%) | $3.0b (11.4%) | $1.6b (-9.7%) | 27.7% (7.2%) | $4.52 (13.6%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in CAD. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.