Discounted Cash Flow
Crawford & Co.
—
Sales growth has weakened: 8.1% (2022) → 7.0% (2023) → 1.8% (2024) → -2.2% (2025). Revenue growth has been decelerating or declining in recent years and is now -2.2% — a slowing company may not sustain the growth the DCF projects, so the valuation could be overstated.
Audit / VIE / HFCA: Financial-sector DCF: free cash flow for lenders/insurers includes loan principal and deposits, so FCF ≈ 5-10× net income and is not a valuation proxy; the model shows moderate/unstable predictability and the DCF can be 5-40× market cap (lender pattern).
Sourced live via DEF 14A beneficial_ownership (edgartools proxy) for US filers and 20-F risk_factors (“controls X% of voting power” + VIE/HFCA) for foreign ADRs — cached 12h. A concentrated holder can overrule the DCF’s minority-basis assumptions on dividends, issuance, and delisting.
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $1.2b | $36.0m | $88.5m | 3.1% | — |
| 2017 | $1.2b (-1.2%) | $27.7m (-23.1%) | $21.7m (-75.5%) | 2.4% (-22.2%) | — |
| 2018 | $1.1b (-3.5%) | $26.0m (-6.1%) | $38.4m (76.7%) | 2.3% (-2.7%) | — |
| 2019 | $1.0b (-6.7%) | $12.5m (-51.9%) | $66.5m (73.4%) | 1.2% (-48.5%) | — |
| 2020 | $1.0b (-3.0%) | $28.3m (126.6%) | $79.0m (18.7%) | 2.8% (133.7%) | — |
| 2021 | $1.1b (12.1%) | $30.7m (8.5%) | $45.1m (-42.9%) | 2.7% (-3.2%) | — |
| 2022 | $1.2b (8.1%) | $-18.3m (-159.6%) | $20.8m (-53.9%) | -1.5% (-155.2%) | — |
| 2023 | $1.3b (7.0%) | $30.6m (267.2%) | $98.9m (375.6%) | 2.3% (256.3%) | — |
| 2024 | $1.3b (1.8%) | $26.6m (-13.1%) | $45.4m (-54.1%) | 2.0% (-14.7%) | — |
| 2025 | $1.3b (-2.2%) | $19.6m (-26.2%) | $94.8m (108.8%) | 1.5% (-24.5%) | — |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.