Discounted Cash Flow
Consolidated Water Co. Ltd.
—
—
⚠ Cash flow predictability 41/100 (moderate) —
FCF YoY std dev 80%,
net income 66% (full history)
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
—
%
%
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $3.4m | $233.7k | $257.4k | 6.8% | $0.27 |
| 2017 | $3.7m (7.7%) | $362.6k (55.1%) | $535.2k (107.9%) | 9.9% (44.1%) | $0.41 (51.9%) |
| 2018 | $3.9m (5.5%) | $666.5k (83.8%) | $-422.4k (-178.9%) | 17.2% (74.3%) | $0.75 (82.9%) |
| 2019 | $4.1m (4.7%) | $718.6k (7.8%) | $689.3k (263.2%) | 17.7% (3.0%) | $0.81 (8.0%) |
| 2020 | $4.3m (5.6%) | $219.1k (-69.5%) | $921.1k (33.6%) | 5.1% (-71.1%) | $0.24 (-70.4%) |
| 2021 | $3.9m (-7.9%) | $51.7k (-76.4%) | $323.2k (-64.9%) | 1.3% (-74.4%) | $0.06 (-75.0%) |
| 2022 | $5.6m (40.7%) | $345.6k (568.8%) | $813.8k (151.8%) | 6.2% (375.2%) | $0.38 (533.3%) |
| 2023 | $10.6m (91.5%) | $1.7m (405.2%) | $172.5k (-78.8%) | 16.4% (163.8%) | $1.88 (394.7%) |
| 2024 | $7.9m (-25.7%) | $1.7m (-4.6%) | $1.8m (920.2%) | 21.1% (28.4%) | $1.78 (-5.3%) |
| 2025 | $7.8m (-1.4%) | $1.1m (-35.1%) | $2.0m (11.2%) | 13.9% (-34.1%) | $1.15 (-35.4%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in MXN. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.