Discounted Cash Flow
Youdao, Inc. ADR
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Audit / VIE / HFCA: Chinese ADR (VIE contractual structure, HFCA Act): the PCAOB must inspect the China-based auditor (e.g. Deloitte/EY China) or the ADRs can be delisted; dividends must be repatriated through the WFOE/VIE and can be blocked. The audit relies on contractual VIE control, not equity, adding structural risk.
Sourced live via DEF 14A beneficial_ownership (edgartools proxy) for US filers and 20-F risk_factors (“controls X% of voting power” + VIE/HFCA) for foreign ADRs — cached 12h. A concentrated holder can overrule the DCF’s minority-basis assumptions on dividends, issuance, and delisting.
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | $68.0m | $-20.2m | $-14.6m | -29.7% | $-2.04 |
| 2018 | $109.1m (60.5%) | $-35.7m (-76.9%) | $-17.0m (-16.6%) | -32.7% (-10.2%) | $-2.80 (-37.3%) |
| 2019 | $27.9m (-74.4%) | $-13.7m (61.7%) | $-8.4m (50.8%) | -48.8% (-49.4%) | $-0.96 (65.7%) |
| 2020 | $72.4m (159.0%) | $-40.1m (-193.4%) | $-48.8m (-483.5%) | -55.3% (-13.3%) | $-2.38 (-147.9%) |
| 2021 | $94.0m (29.8%) | $-21.0m (47.7%) | $-202.2m (-314.5%) | -22.3% (59.7%) | $-1.28 (46.2%) |
| 2022 | $108.4m (15.3%) | $-15.6m (25.6%) | $-91.4m (54.8%) | -14.4% (35.5%) | $-0.85 (33.6%) |
| 2023 | $113.2m (4.4%) | $-11.5m (25.9%) | $-65.7m (28.1%) | -10.2% (29.0%) | $-0.64 (24.7%) |
| 2024 | $114.9m (1.5%) | $1.7m (114.5%) | $-10.4m (84.2%) | 1.5% (114.3%) | $0.10 (115.6%) |
| 2025 | $126.0m (9.6%) | $16.0m (853.1%) | $7.7m (174.1%) | 12.7% (769.4%) | $0.13 (30.0%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in CNY. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.