Discounted Cash Flow
Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft ADR
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Sales growth has weakened: 6.0% (2022) → 15.1% (2023) → 1.1% (2024) → -0.2% (2025). Revenue growth has been decelerating or declining in recent years and is now -0.2% — a slowing company may not sustain the growth the DCF projects, so the valuation could be overstated.
Audit / VIE / HFCA: Financial-sector DCF: free cash flow for lenders/insurers includes loan principal and deposits, so FCF ≈ 5-10× net income and is not a valuation proxy; the model shows moderate/unstable predictability and the DCF can be 5-40× market cap (lender pattern).
Sourced live via DEF 14A beneficial_ownership (edgartools proxy) for US filers and 20-F risk_factors (“controls X% of voting power” + VIE/HFCA) for foreign ADRs — cached 12h. A concentrated holder can overrule the DCF’s minority-basis assumptions on dividends, issuance, and delisting.
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $34.9b | $-1.6b | $12.6b | -4.7% | $-1.08 |
| 2017 | $30.7b (-11.9%) | $-872.4m (46.4%) | $-872.4m (-106.9%) | -2.8% (39.2%) | $-0.53 (50.9%) |
| 2018 | $29.4b (-4.3%) | $310.1m (135.6%) | $310.1m (135.6%) | 1.1% (137.1%) | $-0.01 (98.1%) |
| 2019 | $26.9b (-8.5%) | $-6.3b (-2118.7%) | $13.4b (4204.5%) | -23.3% (-2306.2%) | $-2.71 (-27000.0%) |
| 2020 | $27.9b (3.7%) | $561.1m (109.0%) | $561.1m (-95.8%) | 2.0% (108.6%) | $0.06 (102.2%) |
| 2021 | $29.7b (6.4%) | $2.8b (407.5%) | $6.3b (1022.8%) | 9.6% (377.1%) | $1.00 (1566.7%) |
| 2022 | $31.4b (6.0%) | $6.3b (121.1%) | $10.0b (58.4%) | 20.0% (108.7%) | $2.37 (137.0%) |
| 2023 | $36.2b (15.1%) | $7.4b (16.8%) | $28.6b (186.3%) | 20.3% (1.5%) | $2.83 (19.4%) |
| 2024 | $36.6b (1.1%) | $11.6b (57.7%) | $75.1b (162.9%) | 31.7% (56.0%) | — |
| 2025 | $36.5b (-0.2%) | $16.3b (40.6%) | $104.7b (39.3%) | 44.7% (41.0%) | — |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in EUR. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.