Discounted Cash Flow
Designer Brands Inc.
—
Sales growth has weakened: 3.7% (2023) → -7.3% (2024) → -2.1% (2025) → -3.9% (2026). Revenue growth has been decelerating or declining in recent years and is now -3.9% — a slowing company may not sustain the growth the DCF projects, so the valuation could be overstated.
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | $2.0b | $90.1m | $-63.4m | 4.6% | $1.53 |
| 2018 | $2.0b (3.7%) | $48.7m (-46.0%) | $97.5m (253.8%) | 2.4% (-47.9%) | $0.84 (-45.1%) |
| 2019 | $2.3b (13.3%) | $-14.8m (-130.4%) | $79.6m (-18.4%) | -0.6% (-126.8%) | $-0.26 (-131.0%) |
| 2020 | $2.5b (9.7%) | $68.4m (561.7%) | $114.9m (44.3%) | 2.7% (520.9%) | $1.28 (592.3%) |
| 2021 | $1.6b (-36.0%) | $-353.7m (-617.2%) | $121.1m (5.4%) | -21.9% (-908.3%) | $-6.77 (-628.9%) |
| 2022 | $2.3b (43.0%) | $111.8m (131.6%) | $173.7m (43.5%) | 4.8% (122.1%) | $2.12 (131.3%) |
| 2023 | $2.4b (3.7%) | $117.7m (5.3%) | $121.6m (-30.0%) | 4.9% (1.5%) | $2.41 (13.7%) |
| 2024 | $2.2b (-7.3%) | $21.0m (-82.1%) | $126.7m (4.2%) | 0.9% (-80.7%) | $0.47 (-80.5%) |
| 2025 | $2.2b (-2.1%) | $-7.6m (-136.3%) | $111.7m (-11.8%) | -0.4% (-137.1%) | $-0.20 (-142.6%) |
| 2026 | $2.1b (-3.9%) | $-6.1m (20.6%) | $77.5m (-30.6%) | -0.3% (17.4%) | $-0.17 (15.0%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in CAD. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.