Discounted Cash Flow
Dingdong (Cayman) Ltd. ADR
—
Audit / VIE / HFCA: Chinese ADR (VIE contractual structure, HFCA Act): the PCAOB must inspect the China-based auditor (e.g. Deloitte/EY China) or the ADRs can be delisted; dividends must be repatriated through the WFOE/VIE and can be blocked. The audit relies on contractual VIE control, not equity, adding structural risk.
Sourced live via DEF 14A beneficial_ownership (edgartools proxy) for US filers and 20-F risk_factors (“controls X% of voting power” + VIE/HFCA) for foreign ADRs — cached 12h. A concentrated holder can overrule the DCF’s minority-basis assumptions on dividends, issuance, and delisting.
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | $578.6m | $-279.3m | $-144.0m | -48.3% | $-32.45 |
| 2020 | $1.7b (192.2%) | $-473.7m (-69.6%) | $-343.6m (-138.6%) | -28.0% (42.0%) | $-54.91 (-69.2%) |
| 2021 | $470.8m (-72.1%) | $-150.4m (68.2%) | $-855.5m (-149.0%) | -32.0% (-14.0%) | $-103.50 (-88.5%) |
| 2022 | $523.6m (11.2%) | $-17.4m (88.4%) | $10.3m (101.2%) | -3.3% (89.6%) | $-7.53 (92.7%) |
| 2023 | $3.0b (468.7%) | $-1.9m (89.0%) | $-36.7m (-457.2%) | -0.1% (98.1%) | $-0.93 (87.6%) |
| 2024 | $3.4b (15.5%) | $6.2m (424.4%) | $136.5m (471.7%) | 0.2% (380.9%) | $2.73 (393.5%) |
| 2025 | $3.6b (5.6%) | $4.9m (-20.6%) | $76.1m (-44.3%) | 0.1% (-24.8%) | $2.04 (-25.3%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in CNY. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.