Discounted Cash Flow
Donegal Group Inc.
—
Sales growth has weakened: 3.9% (2022) → 9.3% (2023) → 6.7% (2024) → -1.2% (2025). Revenue growth has been decelerating or declining in recent years and is now -1.2% — a slowing company may not sustain the growth the DCF projects, so the valuation could be overstated.
Audit / VIE / HFCA: Financial-sector DCF: free cash flow for lenders/insurers includes loan principal and deposits, so FCF ≈ 5-10× net income and is not a valuation proxy; the model shows moderate/unstable predictability and the DCF can be 5-40× market cap (lender pattern).
Sourced live via DEF 14A beneficial_ownership (edgartools proxy) for US filers and 20-F risk_factors (“controls X% of voting power” + VIE/HFCA) for foreign ADRs — cached 12h. A concentrated holder can overrule the DCF’s minority-basis assumptions on dividends, issuance, and delisting.
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $688.4m | $30.8m | $60.0m | 4.5% | — |
| 2017 | $739.0m (7.4%) | $7.1m (-76.9%) | $81.0m (34.9%) | 1.0% (-78.5%) | — |
| 2018 | $771.8m (4.4%) | $-32.8m (-560.4%) | $63.8m (-21.3%) | -4.2% (-540.8%) | — |
| 2019 | $812.5m (5.3%) | $47.2m (243.9%) | $76.4m (19.7%) | 5.8% (236.7%) | — |
| 2020 | $777.8m (-4.3%) | $52.8m (12.0%) | $101.1m (32.4%) | 6.8% (17.0%) | — |
| 2021 | $816.5m (5.0%) | $25.3m (-52.2%) | $76.7m (-24.1%) | 3.1% (-54.4%) | — |
| 2022 | $848.2m (3.9%) | $-2.0m (-107.8%) | $67.1m (-12.5%) | -0.2% (-107.5%) | — |
| 2023 | $927.3m (9.3%) | $4.4m (325.9%) | $28.6m (-57.4%) | 0.5% (306.6%) | — |
| 2024 | $989.6m (6.7%) | $50.9m (1049.3%) | $67.4m (136.0%) | 5.1% (977.0%) | — |
| 2025 | $978.0m (-1.2%) | $79.3m (56.0%) | $70.2m (4.1%) | 8.1% (57.8%) | — |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.