Discounted Cash Flow
Daqo NEW Energy Corp. ADR
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Audit / VIE / HFCA: Chinese ADR (VIE contractual structure, HFCA Act): the PCAOB must inspect the China-based auditor (e.g. Deloitte/EY China) or the ADRs can be delisted; dividends must be repatriated through the WFOE/VIE and can be blocked. The audit relies on contractual VIE control, not equity, adding structural risk.
Sourced live via DEF 14A beneficial_ownership (edgartools proxy) for US filers and 20-F risk_factors (“controls X% of voting power” + VIE/HFCA) for foreign ADRs — cached 12h. A concentrated holder can overrule the DCF’s minority-basis assumptions on dividends, issuance, and delisting.
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
| Dividends | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $34.2m | $6.5m | $4.7m | 19.0% | $0.17 |
| 2017 | $52.6m (54.0%) | $13.8m (113.5%) | $11.2m (140.0%) | 26.3% (38.6%) | $0.35 (105.9%) |
| 2018 | $45.0m (-14.5%) | $5.7m (-58.9%) | $-7.1m (-163.5%) | 12.6% (-52.0%) | $0.12 (-65.7%) |
| 2019 | $52.2m (16.0%) | $4.4m (-22.6%) | $-14.6m (-106.4%) | 8.4% (-33.3%) | $0.09 (-25.0%) |
| 2020 | $100.7m (93.0%) | $19.3m (337.6%) | $13.6m (193.2%) | 19.1% (126.7%) | $0.36 (300.0%) |
| 2021 | $250.3m (148.5%) | $111.7m (479.7%) | $20.9m (53.7%) | 44.6% (133.3%) | $2.03 (463.9%) |
| 2022 | $687.2m (174.5%) | $271.4m (143.0%) | $187.5m (795.0%) | 39.5% (-11.5%) | $4.80 (136.5%) |
| 2023 | $344.1m (-49.9%) | $64.0m (-76.4%) | $75.3m (-59.8%) | 18.6% (-52.9%) | $1.15 (-76.0%) |
| 2024 | $153.4m (-55.4%) | $-51.5m (-180.4%) | $-118.4m (-257.2%) | -33.5% (-280.2%) | $-1.04 (-190.4%) |
| 2025 | $99.2m (-35.3%) | $-25.4m (50.6%) | $-18.4m (84.5%) | -25.6% (23.6%) | $-0.51 (51.0%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
SEC filings report in CNY. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Net debt deduction: —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.